Dallas Goedert or Jake Ferguson: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Role is not in question: 85% snap share and a 20% target share across 15 games mean he's on the field and involved on every meaningful drive.
• Philadelphia's 26.0 implied total with a -5.5 spread points to a productive, red-zone-heavy afternoon, where Goedert has always been a factor.
• Washington grades 21 of 32 in DvP composite vs tight ends — a slightly favorable draw, though the 0-game sample means it shouldn't drive the call on its own.
• TE12 consensus with 10.9 projected points is starter territory at a thin position; no injury designation removes the usual Goedert availability worry.

The call

• Ferguson is the Cowboys' clear starting tight end at a 17% target share on 67% of the snaps — that's TE1 volume, and volume is what decides tight end weeks in PPR.
• The 25.0 implied total and -1.5 spread point to a competitive, pass-heavy script where Dallas keeps throwing to the middle of the field rather than sitting on a lead.
• The DvP composite lists the Giants 7th toughest vs tight ends, but it's a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence — not enough to bench a locked-in starter over.
• No injury designation and a 9.8-point projection at TE12 means he clears the typical waiver-level replacement in a 12-team league.