Harrison Butker or Tyler Loop: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Consensus has him K13 at 8.5 points — literally the first kicker outside a 12-team starting group, so he's replacement-level rather than a set-and-forget play.
• The volume case is fine, not special: 2.1 attempts and 2.1 extra points off a 22.5 implied total, with 1.5 red-zone stalls per game feeding the FG tries.
• Accuracy is the edge — 87% (33/38) with a 59-yard long and five games with a 50-plus make means he converts the chances he gets, including from distance.
• Open roof with no forecast yet is the swing factor: clean conditions push him to a start, wind or precipitation drops him behind a dome kicker with a higher team total.

The call

• A 26.5 implied team total is top-tier kicker territory: the projection has him at 1.7 made field goals plus 2.6 extra points, giving multiple paths to a usable score.
• Loop has been automatic at 88% (30/34) with a long of 52, so the attempts he gets should convert; the offense also stalls in the red zone 1.9 times per game, which is exactly the profile that feeds field-goal volume.
• Retractable roof removes most weather risk, and as the unquestioned PK1 with no injury designation there's no snap-share or availability concern.
• Downside is the modest 2.0 projected attempts — if the offense finishes drives with touchdowns instead of stalling, he lives on extra points, but that's the good version of the game script anyway.