Isaiah Likely or Jake Ferguson: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Likely has commanded a 14% target share across 11 games — elite-adjacent volume for the position — while playing 59% of snaps as the listed TE, so the floor comes from role, not touchdown luck.
• The opponent DvP composite (10 of 32) reads mildly unfriendly, but it's built on a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't override a stable target profile.
• A 1.5-point spread with a 23.5 implied team total points to a competitive script where Baltimore keeps throwing in the middle of the field rather than shutting it down early.
• Risk is the ceiling, not the floor: 9.4 projected points and a TE14 rank mean he's a start over replacement, but he needs a red-zone look to win your week.

The call

• Ferguson is the Cowboys' clear starting tight end at a 17% target share on 67% of the snaps — that's TE1 volume, and volume is what decides tight end weeks in PPR.
• The 25.0 implied total and -1.5 spread point to a competitive, pass-heavy script where Dallas keeps throwing to the middle of the field rather than sitting on a lead.
• The DvP composite lists the Giants 7th toughest vs tight ends, but it's a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence — not enough to bench a locked-in starter over.
• No injury designation and a 9.8-point projection at TE12 means he clears the typical waiver-level replacement in a 12-team league.