Isaiah Likely or Travis Kelce: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Likely has commanded a 14% target share across 11 games — elite-adjacent volume for the position — while playing 59% of snaps as the listed TE, so the floor comes from role, not touchdown luck.
• The opponent DvP composite (10 of 32) reads mildly unfriendly, but it's built on a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't override a stable target profile.
• A 1.5-point spread with a 23.5 implied team total points to a competitive script where Baltimore keeps throwing in the middle of the field rather than shutting it down early.
• Risk is the ceiling, not the floor: 9.4 projected points and a TE14 rank mean he's a start over replacement, but he needs a red-zone look to win your week.

The call

• Role is the whole case: 82% snap share and a 20% target share over 17 games mean Kelce is on the field and targeted like a featured option regardless of matchup.
• Denver rates a middling 17 of 32 on the DvP composite, and the sample confidence is 0.00 — there's nothing here scary enough to bench a TE with this volume.
• A 2.5-point spread with a 22.5 implied total points to a competitive, pass-balanced script rather than a run-out-the-clock blowout, which protects his target floor.
• The 9.8 projection and TE11 rank are modest, so this is a solid TE1 start rather than a league-winner — the only real risk is a touchdown-dependent week where a big-play TE outscores him.