DJ Moore or Tony Pollard: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

DJ Moore and Tony Pollard grade out even this week. Moore's best edge is snap share (85% to 63%), Pollard's best edge is the consensus rank (RB28 to WR31) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

DJ Moore

WR31BUFvs HOU

7.79.711.6 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Tony Pollard

RB28TENvs NYJ

9.810.711.5 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Why DJ Moore

Toss-Up· medium

WR1 and primary target. Physical yards-after-catch separator with occasional gadget rushing and trick-play usage.

WR26 with an 85% snap share, but a 16% target share and a top-10 tough DvP matchup vs Houston cap the ceiling in a 23.5-point team total.

HOU ranks 7 of 32 against WRs (one of the tougher matchups, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 23.5 team points as 1.5-point favorites.
Listed WR on the latest depth chart with a 85% snap share in 2025.

The call

Houston grades 7 of 32 in the DvP composite (32 = softest), one of the harder draws on the board — though the 0-game sample carries 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't be the whole case.
Role is secure: 85% snap share over 17 games means he's on the field for everything, but a 16% target share is thin for a WR who needs volume to clear his 11.6 projection.
A 1.5-point spread and 23.5 implied total point to a competitive script with neither shootout upside nor garbage-time volume baked in.
Tips to start if he's your WR3/flex in a 12-team PPR and the alternative is a bench-level committee piece; tips to sit if you have a WR with a defined red-zone or slot-volume edge this week.

Why Tony Pollard

Toss-Up· medium

RB1 and lead back. One-cut zone runner with breakaway speed and 1,000-yard workload.

RB28 with a 63% snap share and 3-point favorite script, but an 8% target share caps the PPR floor — a fringe flex, not a set-and-forget start.

NYJ ranks 25 of 32 against RBs (one of the softer matchups, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 21.3 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 63% snap share in 2025.

The call

Role is real: 63% snap share over 17 games makes him the primary back, and a -3.0 spread with a 21.3 implied total points to a healthy dose of second-half carries if Tennessee is ahead.
The receiving side is the problem — an 8% target share means his PPR floor lives and dies on rushing volume and goal-line work, which is why he lands at RB28 on 11.5 projected points.
The DvP composite of 25 of 32 reads soft, but it comes with a 0-game sample and 0.00 confidence, so there's no real matchup edge to bank on here.
Tips to start if your alternative is a bench-level committee back or a low-volume WR3; tips to sit if you have anyone with a defined passing-game role.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	DJ Moore	Tony Pollard
Projected points	7.79.711.6	9.810.711.5
Consensus rank	WR31	RB28
Opponent vs position	HOU · 7 of 320-game sample	NYJ · 25 of 320-game sample
Receptions	4 of 32	8 of 32
Receiving Yards	11 of 32	21 of 32
Receiving TDs	5 of 32	—
Targets	12 of 32	—
Anytime TD	4 of 32	32 of 32
Rushing Yards	—	28 of 32
Rushing TDs	—	29 of 32
Rushing Attempts	—	30 of 32
Target share	16%(2025)	8%(2025)
Reception share	15%(2025)	10%(2025)
Implied total · spread	23.5-1.5	21.3-3.0
Depth chart	WR1	RB1
Snap share	85%(2025)	63%(2025)
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	0–0+1 toss-up