Dallas Goedert or Kyle Pitts Sr.: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Goedert — the game script and projection edges are too wide to ignore.
Dallas Goedert plays in the better game script (26.0 implied team points to 19.8) and projects 10.9 to Pitts's 10.4. Pitts's edge is snap share, 88% to 85%. The gap is narrow.

Dallas Goedert
6.88.810.9 Projected Points

Kyle Pitts Sr.
5.68.010.4 Projected Points
Why Dallas Goedert
Start· highStarting TE and red-zone weapon. Reliable chain-mover with strong yards-after-catch and blocking ability.
TE7 with an 85% snap share and 20% target share in a 26-point implied team total — locked-in volume makes him an easy weekly TE1.
- WSH ranks 21 of 32 against TEs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 0-game sample).
- Vegas implies 26.0 team points as 5.5-point favorites.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 85% snap share in 2025.
The call
- A 20% target share at tight end is elite usage, and the 85% snap rate confirms he's on the field for essentially every meaningful down.
- Philadelphia's 26.0 implied total and 5.5-point favorite status point to a scoring script with red-zone looks, where Goedert has long been a factor.
- The Washington DvP composite ranks 21 of 32 toward the softer side, but it's a 0-game sample with zero confidence — the role and volume are the real reason to start him.
- No injury designation and the depth chart is settled with him as the clear starter ahead of E.J. Jenkins, so there's no snap-share risk this week.
Why Kyle Pitts Sr.
Start· mediumTE1 and vertical seam threat. Rare size-speed mismatch profile with high-volume target share in the passing game.
TE7 with an 88% snap share and 23% target share — that volume plays in any 12-team PPR lineup, even in a modest 19.8-point team total.
- PIT ranks 27 of 32 against TEs (one of the softer matchups, 0-game sample).
- Vegas implies 19.8 team points as 3.0-point underdogs.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 88% snap share in 2025.
The call
- A 23% target share at tight end is elite-tier usage, and the 88% snap rate means Pitts is on the field for every situational package — that floor alone clears replacement level at a thin position.
- Consensus has him TE7 at 10.4 projected points; you are not finding a better option on the waiver wire in a 12-team league.
- The DvP composite lists Pittsburgh 27 of 32 (32 = softest), but it carries a 0-game sample and 0.00 confidence, so treat it as neutral rather than a bonus.
- The real drag is the 19.8 implied team total with a 3.0-point spread — a low-scoring script caps the ceiling, but the target volume protects the floor.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Dallas Goedert | Kyle Pitts Sr. |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 6.88.810.9 | 5.68.010.4 |
| Consensus rank | TE7 | TE7 |
| Opponent vs position | WSH · 21 of 320-game sample | PIT · 27 of 320-game sample |
| Receptions | 11 of 32 | 29 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 26 of 32 | 28 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 30 of 32 | 26 of 32 |
| Targets | 9 of 32 | 28 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 31 of 32 | 26 of 32 |
| Target share | 20%(2025) | 23%(2025) |
| Reception share | 21%(2025) | 27%(2025) |
| Implied total · spread | 26.0-5.5 | 19.8+3.0 |
| Depth chart | TE1 | TE1 |
| Snap share | 85%(2025) | 88%(2025) |
Signal breakdown
- 10.9 vs 10.4 projected PPR pointsDallas Goedert +
- Rank 7 vs 7even
- Opponent DvP rank 21 vs 27 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 26.0 vs 19.8 team pointsDallas Goedert +
- No injury designationseven
- 85% vs 88% snap shareKyle Pitts Sr. +
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