Mark Andrews or Travis Kelce: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Too close to call — the edges cancel out.
Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce grade out even this week. Andrews's best edge is the game script (26.5 implied points to 22.5), Kelce's best edge is snap share (82% to 62%) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Mark Andrews
6.68.410.1 Projected Points

Travis Kelce
5.67.79.8 Projected Points
Why Mark Andrews
Start· mediumTE1 and red-zone mismatch. Veteran seam-stretcher with strong hands and quarterback rapport.
Healthy, no designation, 17% target share on a team with a 26.5 implied total — Andrews' red-zone role plays up in a projected 3.5-point win.
- IND ranks 20 of 32 against TEs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 0-game sample).
- Vegas implies 26.5 team points as 3.5-point favorites.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 62% snap share in 2025.
The call
- Availability is clean (no designation) and the role is locked: 62% snap share with a 17% target share is starter-level volume at a position where most streamers see single-digit target shares.
- A 26.5 implied team total and a -3.5 spread point to a positive-but-competitive script — enough scoring to feed touchdown equity without a run-out clock blowout that erases pass volume.
- The 20-of-32 DvP composite is middling-to-soft, but it comes off a 0-game sample at 0.00 confidence, so lean on the role and game environment rather than the matchup grade.
- Risk is the ceiling: 10.1 projected points and a TE15 consensus rank make him a floor play, not a difference-maker — if you have a top-8 TE alternative, use it.
Why Travis Kelce
Start· mediumTE1 and future Hall of Fame-caliber pass catcher. Elite route craft from the seam and slot, still a volume target.
20% target share and an 82% snap rate keep Kelce a locked-in TE1; TE11 projection is fine in a tight 22.5-point game he'll be busy in.
- DEN ranks 17 of 32 against TEs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 0-game sample).
- Vegas implies 22.5 team points as 2.5-point favorites.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 82% snap share in 2025.
The call
- Role is the whole case: 82% snap share and a 20% target share over 17 games mean Kelce is on the field and targeted like a featured option regardless of matchup.
- Denver rates a middling 17 of 32 on the DvP composite, and the sample confidence is 0.00 — there's nothing here scary enough to bench a TE with this volume.
- A 2.5-point spread with a 22.5 implied total points to a competitive, pass-balanced script rather than a run-out-the-clock blowout, which protects his target floor.
- The 9.8 projection and TE11 rank are modest, so this is a solid TE1 start rather than a league-winner — the only real risk is a touchdown-dependent week where a big-play TE outscores him.
Latest on Kelce
Kelce closed on the home long before his July wedding to the pop superstar.
ESPN · Sep 2, 2026
The dog, a female Samoyed, starred alongside Kelce in an ad campaign for Tommy Hilfiger.
ESPN · Sep 1, 2026
Kansas City had one of the NFL's worst play-action passing attacks last season. Expect that to change in 2026.
ESPN · Aug 27, 2026
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Mark Andrews | Travis Kelce |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 6.68.410.1 | 5.67.79.8 |
| Consensus rank | TE11 | TE10 |
| Opponent vs position | IND · 20 of 320-game sample | DEN · 17 of 320-game sample |
| Receptions | 25 of 32 | 20 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 31 of 32 | 23 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 9 of 32 | 9 of 32 |
| Targets | 24 of 32 | 24 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 9 of 32 | 9 of 32 |
| Target share | 17%(2025) | 20%(2025) |
| Reception share | 17%(2025) | 21%(2025) |
| Implied total · spread | 26.5-3.5 | 22.5-2.5 |
| Depth chart | TE1 | TE1 |
| Snap share | 62%(2025) | 82%(2025) |
Signal breakdown
- 10.1 vs 9.8 projected PPR pointsMark Andrews +
- Rank 11 vs 10Travis Kelce +
- Opponent DvP rank 20 vs 17 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 26.5 vs 22.5 team pointsMark Andrews +
- No injury designationseven
- 62% vs 82% snap shareTravis Kelce +
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