Isaiah Likely or Mark Andrews: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Likely has commanded a 14% target share across 11 games — elite-adjacent volume for the position — while playing 59% of snaps as the listed TE, so the floor comes from role, not touchdown luck.
• The opponent DvP composite (10 of 32) reads mildly unfriendly, but it's built on a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't override a stable target profile.
• A 1.5-point spread with a 23.5 implied team total points to a competitive script where Baltimore keeps throwing in the middle of the field rather than shutting it down early.
• Risk is the ceiling, not the floor: 9.4 projected points and a TE14 rank mean he's a start over replacement, but he needs a red-zone look to win your week.

The call

• Availability is clean (no designation) and the role is locked: 62% snap share with a 17% target share is starter-level volume at a position where most streamers see single-digit target shares.
• A 26.5 implied team total and a -3.5 spread point to a positive-but-competitive script — enough scoring to feed touchdown equity without a run-out clock blowout that erases pass volume.
• The 20-of-32 DvP composite is middling-to-soft, but it comes off a 0-game sample at 0.00 confidence, so lean on the role and game environment rather than the matchup grade.
• Risk is the ceiling: 10.1 projected points and a TE15 consensus rank make him a floor play, not a difference-maker — if you have a top-8 TE alternative, use it.