Isaiah Likely or Tucker Kraft: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Consensus has him TE12 at 9.4 PPR points, which is exactly the 12-team starter/replacement boundary — he beats a streamer, but not by much.
• The role is part-time: 59% snap share and a 14% target share over 11 games means his ceiling depends on red-zone looks rather than volume.
• Dallas grades 10 of 32 in the DvP composite (32 = softest), a tougher-than-average draw, though the 0-game sample and 0.00 confidence mean that number shouldn't move the needle much.
• A 1.5-point spread and 23.5 implied total point to a competitive, pass-neutral script — if your alternative is a sub-8-point TE, start Likely; if you have a locked-in every-down tight end, sit him.

The call

• A 20% target share over eight games is elite for the position — Kraft is a genuine focal point in this passing game, not a matchup-dependent streamer, and 86% snaps confirm the every-down role.
• The DvP composite lists Minnesota 7 of 32 against tight ends, but it's a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence — that number shouldn't override established volume.
• Game script cooperates: a 1.5-point spread with a 23.0 implied total means a competitive, two-way script that keeps Green Bay throwing rather than salting a lead away.
• The only real risk is the questionable tag. If he's downgraded or ruled out pregame, pivot; short of that, TE13 with this usage beats the replacement-level tight end on your bench.