Isaiah Likely or T.J. Hockenson: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Isaiah Likely and T.J. Hockenson grade out even this week. Likely's best edge is the consensus rank (TE12 to TE15), Hockenson's best edge is snap share (78% to 59%) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

In standard scoring this flips to Likely.

Isaiah Likely

TE12NYGvs DAL

5.67.59.4 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

T.J. Hockenson

TE15MINvs GB

4.76.99.2 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Isaiah Likely

Toss-Up· medium

Starting TE and pass-catching mismatch. Athletic seam-stretcher with red-zone flex ability.

TE12 at 9.4 projected points with only a 59% snap share and 14% target share — a fine plug-in, but not a set-and-forget TE1.

DAL ranks 10 of 32 against TEs (one of the tougher matchups, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 23.5 team points as 1.5-point underdogs.
Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 59% snap share in 2025.

The call

Consensus has him TE12 at 9.4 PPR points, which is exactly the 12-team starter/replacement boundary — he beats a streamer, but not by much.
The role is part-time: 59% snap share and a 14% target share over 11 games means his ceiling depends on red-zone looks rather than volume.
Dallas grades 10 of 32 in the DvP composite (32 = softest), a tougher-than-average draw, though the 0-game sample and 0.00 confidence mean that number shouldn't move the needle much.
A 1.5-point spread and 23.5 implied total point to a competitive, pass-neutral script — if your alternative is a sub-8-point TE, start Likely; if you have a locked-in every-down tight end, sit him.

Why T.J. Hockenson

Start· medium

TE1 and primary middle-of-field target. Route-savvy seam threat with high-volume usage when healthy.

78% snap share and a 16% target share keep Hockenson a volume-driven TE1/2; 9.2 projected points clears the streaming bar in a one-score game.

GB ranks 12 of 32 against TEs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 21.5 team points as 1.5-point underdogs.
Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 78% snap share in 2025.

The call

Role is locked in — 78% of snaps and a 16% target share over 15 games means he's a primary read regardless of matchup.
A 1.5-point spread and 21.5 implied team total point to a competitive script where Minnesota keeps throwing rather than grinding out a lead.
The GB matchup grades 12 of 32 (tougher half), and the TE15 consensus rank means this is a floor play, not a ceiling one — but 9.2 PPR points beats a typical replacement TE.
Only real risk is touchdown dependency; if you're holding a top-10 TE with a softer draw, that's the swap.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Isaiah Likely	T.J. Hockenson
Projected points	5.67.59.4	4.76.99.2
Consensus rank	TE12	TE15
Opponent vs position	DAL · 10 of 320-game sample	GB · 12 of 320-game sample
Receptions	16 of 32	19 of 32
Receiving Yards	16 of 32	6 of 32
Receiving TDs	6 of 32	9 of 32
Targets	9 of 32	19 of 32
Anytime TD	5 of 32	9 of 32
Target share	14%(2025)	16%(2025)
Reception share	15%(2025)	19%(2025)
Implied total · spread	23.5+1.5	21.5+1.5
Depth chart	TE1	TE1
Snap share	59%(2025)	78%(2025)