Isaiah Likely or Juwan Johnson: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Consensus has him TE12 at 9.4 PPR points, which is exactly the 12-team starter cutoff: fine if your alternative is a waiver dart, benchable if you have a locked-in top-10 option.
• Role is real but not dominant — 59% snap share and a 14% target share over 11 games means he's on the field for most passing downs without commanding a true focal-point workload.
• The DvP composite of 10 of 32 grades this as a tougher-than-average draw, but with a 0-game sample and 0.00 confidence there's nothing to actually lean on either way.
• Game script is neutral-to-helpful: a 1.5-point spread and a 23.5 implied team total point to a competitive game with enough volume to reach his projection, which is what tips him in if he's your best available body.

The call

• An 18% target share is genuine TE1 usage — he's the clear top option at the position in this offense with a 75% snap share, so his floor isn't tied to a scheme quirk or a matchup edge.
• Saints are 7-point underdogs with a 20.8 implied total; trailing script means more dropbacks and more short-to-intermediate work for the tight end, which is exactly where Johnson eats in PPR.
• The DvP composite (19 of 32) comes off a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so there's no real matchup signal here either way — this call rides on role, and the role is locked in.
• Risk is the low team total: 8.8 projected points and TE13 means he's barely ahead of the streamer pile, so a red-zone-free afternoon caps him near 5-6. If your bench holds a TE with a top-10 matchup, this is closer than the verdict suggests.