David Montgomery or MarShawn Lloyd: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Consensus has him RB21 at 12.7 PPR — inside the range you start as an RB2/flex in a 12-team league, and he carries no injury designation.
• The matchup grades 20 of 32 (softest = 32), a mild tilt in his favor, though the 0-game sample means it carries essentially no weight.
• Usage is the risk: 37% snaps and a 5% target share mean almost no PPR floor from receiving work — his points come on volume-limited carries and scores.
• A 1.5-point spread and 22.0 implied total point to a competitive, non-blowout script, which keeps him on the field but caps the ceiling; a bigger favorite line would make this an easy start.

The call

• Sports Illustrated reports Lloyd is projected as the Week 1 lead back with Josh Jacobs unavailable, in line for 15-to-20 touches rather than a change-of-pace share — the single biggest driver here.
• A 12.9-point projection and RB24 consensus rank already clear the bar for a 12-team PPR flex or RB2 slot, and that number is built on the expanded role.
• Game script is neutral-to-favorable: Green Bay is a 1.5-point favorite with a 23.0 implied total, so there's no obvious script that pulls him off the field.
• Risk is the matchup and sample: Minnesota grades 13 of 32 vs the position (softest = 32) on a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so the defensive read is unreliable and touch counts could be split if Green Bay rotates.