Harrison Butker or Will Reichard: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Harrison Butker and Will Reichard grade out even this week. Butker's best edge is red-zone opportunity (1.5 to 1.3 stalls per game), Reichard's best edge is the consensus rank (K12 to K13) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Harrison Butker

K13KCvs DEN

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start· medium

Will Reichard

K12MINvs GB

8.48.48.4 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Harrison Butker

Start· medium

Veteran starting kicker with big-leg range. Proven under postseason pressure.

K10 with 8.5 projected, 87% accuracy and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game in a 22.5-point offense — enough volume to start in 12-team.

2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
KC's offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has KC at 22.5 points as 2.5-point favorites.
87% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 5 games.

The call

Butker projects for 8.5 points at K10, which is above the replacement line in a 12-team league where only 12 kickers start.
Kansas City's implied total of 22.5 plus 1.5 red-zone stalls per game supports the 2.1 projected attempts and 2.1 extra points — his floor comes from a functional offense that also settles for field goals.
He's the locked-in PK1 with no injury designation, hitting 87% (33/38) with five 50-plus makes and a 59-yard long, so range isn't a limiter in a tight 2.5-point game.
Only real risk is the open roof with no forecast yet — heavy wind or precipitation against Denver would push this back toward a coin flip.

Latest on Butker

Seattle Seahawks vs. Kansas City Chiefs Game Highlights

ESPN · Aug 28, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Will Reichard

Toss-Up

Starting K with strong leg. Handles kickoffs and long-range attempts.

Toss-up — K12 by consensus, projects K14 this week: kicks indoors, and 1.3 red-zone stalls a game.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
MIN's offense stalls in the red zone 1.3 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has MIN at 21.5 points as 1.5-point dogs.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Harrison Butker	Will Reichard
Projected points	8.58.58.5	8.48.48.4
Consensus rank	K13	K12
Projected FG attempts	2.1	2.1
Red-zone stalls / game	1.5(2025)	1.3(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	22.5-2.5	21.5+1.5
Field-goal %	86.8%(2025)	94.3%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	0–0+1 toss-up