Evan McPherson or Will Reichard: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Evan McPherson and Will Reichard grade out even this week. McPherson's best edge is the game script (27.0 implied points to 21.5), Reichard's best edge is red-zone opportunity (1.3 to 1.1 stalls per game) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Evan McPherson

K12CINvs TB

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start· medium

Will Reichard

K12MINvs GB

8.48.48.4 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Evan McPherson

Start· medium

Starting placekicker with big-leg range. Proven clutch postseason performer.

27.0 implied total plus 89% accuracy (25/28) and a 63-yard long make McPherson a fine K play — 8.5 projected points, 2.7 XPs baked in.

1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
CIN's offense stalls in the red zone 1.1 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has CIN at 27 points as 3.5-point favorites.
89% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 4 games.

The call

A 27.0 implied team total is a top-tier kicker environment: 2.7 projected extra points plus 1.9 field-goal tries gives him one of the better volume floors at the position.
He's been elite and locked in as PK1 — 89% accuracy on 25-of-28 with a 63-yard long and 50-plus makes in four games, so even stalled drives outside the 40 convert.
Only 1.1 red-zone stalls per game is a mild ceiling cap — this offense finishes drives, which pushes his scoring toward XPs rather than three-pointers.
Open roof with no forecast yet is the one thing to monitor; heavy wind would knock him back into the toss-up tier at K14.

Why Will Reichard

Toss-Up

Starting K with strong leg. Handles kickoffs and long-range attempts.

Toss-up — K12 by consensus, projects K14 this week: kicks indoors, and 1.3 red-zone stalls a game.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
MIN's offense stalls in the red zone 1.3 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has MIN at 21.5 points as 1.5-point dogs.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Evan McPherson	Will Reichard
Projected points	8.58.58.5	8.48.48.4
Consensus rank	K12	K12
Projected FG attempts	1.9	2.1
Red-zone stalls / game	1.1(2025)	1.3(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	27.0-3.5	21.5+1.5
Field-goal %	89.3%(2025)	94.3%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up