Evan McPherson or Jake Elliott: Who Should You Start?

The call

• A 27.0 implied team total is a top-tier kicker environment: 2.7 projected extra points plus 1.9 field-goal tries gives him one of the better volume floors at the position.
• He's been elite and locked in as PK1 — 89% accuracy on 25-of-28 with a 63-yard long and 50-plus makes in four games, so even stalled drives outside the 40 convert.
• Only 1.1 red-zone stalls per game is a mild ceiling cap — this offense finishes drives, which pushes his scoring toward XPs rather than three-pointers.
• Open roof with no forecast yet is the one thing to monitor; heavy wind would knock him back into the toss-up tier at K14.

The call

• Philadelphia's 26.0 implied total is the key input: 3.0 projected extra points give Elliott a floor most K20-ranked kickers don't have, and 1.9 attempts add the upside.
• Only 0.8 red-zone stalls per game means this offense finishes drives rather than settling for field goals — that caps attempt volume but converts into the XP floor instead.
• Risk factors are real: 74% accuracy (20/27) is unimpressive and the K20 consensus rank says the market sees him as a fringe starter, so a shootout that stalls could leave 5-6 points.
• He's locked in as PK1 with no injury designation, and the open roof has no forecast yet — recheck weather before locking, since wind is the one thing that would flip this to a sit.