Chase McLaughlin or Jake Elliott: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Same role, mirrored value: McLaughlin's stalls offset Elliott's bigger scoreboard

McLaughlin's case rests on Tampa Bay's offense sputtering red zone trips into field-goal tries almost twice as often as Philadelphia's, which is exactly the inefficiency that pads a kicker's line. Elliott's case is the flip side: Philly scores more and covers as a bigger favorite, but that same red-zone success caps his kick volume even as it protects his extra-point count. The accuracy gap looks meaningful on the sheet, but McLaughlin's number comes from a much deeper sample than Elliott's, so treat it as a mild edge rather than a real separator. Both are locked-in starters for their teams with no competition behind them, so this is about which flavor of volume you trust more this week.

What flips it: A second Eagles red-zone trip stalling out this week would push Elliott's attempt count past McLaughlin's.

AI editor

Chase McLaughlin

K14TBvs CIN

8.48.48.4 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Jake Elliott

K12PHIvs WSH

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Chase McLaughlin

Toss-Up· medium

Starting placekicker with big-leg range and a 65-yard career long. Reliable from distance, though his 84.9% career accuracy sits around league average.

K15 at 8.4 points: elite 84% accuracy and 65-yard range, but only 2.0 projected FG attempts and no weather forecast at an open roof

Tampa Bay's red-zone stalls happening far more often than Philly's directly feeds his own attempt count.
His 50-plus makes have come in more games, so a long look late doesn't scare you.

The call

The leg is a real edge — 84% (32/38) with a 50-plus make in 7 games and a 65-yard long means he cashes attempts other kickers don't even take.
Volume is the problem: 1.8 made on just 2.0 attempts plus 2.1 extra points off a 23.5 implied total is a median K line, which is why he sits at K15 rather than in the start-every-week tier.
1.4 red-zone stalls per game is a healthy source of drive-ending kicks, and he's locked in as PK1 with no designation, so there's no role or availability risk.
Tips to start if the forecast at the open roof comes in calm; if wind shows up, a top-12 kicker in a dome is the cleaner play.

Why Jake Elliott

Start· medium

Veteran starting K with big-leg range. Proven in high-leverage postseason kicks.

26.0 implied team total and a 5.5-point favorite role give Elliott a 3.0-XP floor plus 1.9 FG tries — enough volume despite the K20 tag.

Philadelphia's implied total and spread role mean more genuine drives, which is where extra points come from.
A stingier red-zone stall rate caps his field-goal chances even as it signals a more explosive offense.

The call

Philadelphia's 26.0 implied total is the key input: 3.0 projected extra points give Elliott a floor most K20-ranked kickers don't have, and 1.9 attempts add the upside.
Only 0.8 red-zone stalls per game means this offense finishes drives rather than settling for field goals — that caps attempt volume but converts into the XP floor instead.
Risk factors are real: 74% accuracy (20/27) is unimpressive and the K20 consensus rank says the market sees him as a fringe starter, so a shootout that stalls could leave 5-6 points.
He's locked in as PK1 with no injury designation, and the open roof has no forecast yet — recheck weather before locking, since wind is the one thing that would flip this to a sit.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Chase McLaughlin	Jake Elliott
Projected points	8.48.48.4	8.58.58.5
Consensus rank	K14	K12
Projected FG attempts	2.0	1.9
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	0.8(2025)
Implied total · spread	23.5+3.5	26.0-5.5
Field-goal %	84.2%(2025)	74.1%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—