Eddy Pineiro or Evan McPherson: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Pineiro's Stalls Offset McPherson's Bigger Scoreboard

Two kickers land on almost the same point total by completely different routes. Pineiro's Niners stall in the red zone more often, so drives that die at the 15 still turn into automatic points, and the tighter spread keeps San Francisco driving rather than pulling away late. McPherson plays behind a hotter offense with a much higher implied total, which should mean more extra points, but the flip side is that a Bengals team that keeps finishing drives leaves him fewer actual field-goal tries. Both are fine plays this week, but the paths that get them to the same expected score also cap their upside in opposite ways.

What flips it: A Bengals offense that starts finishing red-zone trips instead of stalling.

AI editor

Eddy Pineiro

K10SFvs LAR

8.78.78.7 Projected Points

Start

Evan McPherson

K12CINvs TB

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Eddy Pineiro

Start

Starting placekicker. Strong leg with veteran accuracy track record.

Start — K10 by consensus, projects K9 this week: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.7 pts projected vs LAR.

Pineiro benefits when the 49ers stall inside the 20 — empty drives become automatic points for him.

Why Evan McPherson

Start· medium

Starting placekicker with big-leg range. Proven clutch postseason performer.

27.0 implied total plus 89% accuracy (25/28) and a 63-yard long make McPherson a fine K play — 8.5 projected points, 2.7 XPs baked in.

McPherson's leg covers long misses, but a hot Bengals red zone shrinks his kick attempts even as it lifts his XP count.

The call

A 27.0 implied team total is a top-tier kicker environment: 2.7 projected extra points plus 1.9 field-goal tries gives him one of the better volume floors at the position.
He's been elite and locked in as PK1 — 89% accuracy on 25-of-28 with a 63-yard long and 50-plus makes in four games, so even stalled drives outside the 40 convert.
Only 1.1 red-zone stalls per game is a mild ceiling cap — this offense finishes drives, which pushes his scoring toward XPs rather than three-pointers.
Open roof with no forecast yet is the one thing to monitor; heavy wind would knock him back into the toss-up tier at K14.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Eddy Pineiro	Evan McPherson
Projected points	8.78.78.7	8.58.58.5
Consensus rank	K10	K12
Projected FG attempts	2.1	1.9
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.1(2025)
Implied total · spread	22.8+3.0	27.0-3.5
Field-goal %	96.6%(2025)	89.3%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1