Start Jake Bates over Eddy Pineiro — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Bates — the game script and consensus rank edges are too wide to ignore.

Jake Bates plays in the better game script (27.8 implied team points to 22.8) and is the higher consensus play (K8 to K10). Pineiro's edge is attempt volume, 2.1 to 1.9 projected attempts. The gap is narrow.

Eddy Pineiro

K10SFvs LAR

8.78.78.7 Projected Points

Start

Jake Bates

K8DETvs NO

8.78.78.7 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Eddy Pineiro

Start

Starting placekicker. Strong leg with veteran accuracy track record.

Start — K10 by consensus, projects K9 this week: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.7 pts projected vs LAR.

2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
SF's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has SF at 22.8 points as 3-point dogs.
97% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 5 games.

Why Jake Bates

Start· medium

Starting PK with a massive leg. Big-range field goal threat beyond 55.

K9 in a dome with a 27.8 implied total — 2.9 projected XPs plus 1.7 makes and 50-plus range give Bates a top-10 floor.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
DET's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has DET at 27.8 points as 7-point favorites.

The call

The 27.8 implied team total as a 7-point favorite is the key number: that volume of scoring means 2.9 projected extra points on top of 1.7 made field goals, which is exactly how kickers hit 8-plus.
Dome game, no weather risk — one of the few variables that actually separates kickers is neutralized here.
Locked-in PK1 with no injury designation, 79% accuracy (27/34) and a 59-yard long with 50-plus makes in 4 games, so the long-range upside is live.
Only mild caution: 1.9 projected attempts and 1.4 red-zone stalls per game mean he needs the offense to keep stalling short of the goal line for field-goal volume, so the score leans XP-dependent.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Eddy Pineiro	Jake Bates
Projected points	8.78.78.7	8.78.78.7
Consensus rank	K10	K8
Projected FG attempts	2.1	1.9
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.4(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	22.8+3.0	27.8-7.0
Field-goal %	96.6%(2025)	79.4%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up