Harrison Mevis or Jake Bates: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Harrison Mevis and Jake Bates grade out even this week. Mevis's best edge is the projection (9.4 to 8.7), Bates's best edge is the game script (27.8 implied points to 25.8) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Harrison Mevis

K7LARvs SF

9.49.49.4 Projected Points

Start

Jake Bates

K8DETvs NO

8.78.78.7 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Harrison Mevis

Start

Starting K with strong leg. Big-distance range on field goals; limited career sample.

Start — K7 by consensus, projects K4 this week: 1.6 red-zone stalls a game, and 9.4 pts projected vs SF.

2.0 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
LAR's offense stalls in the red zone 1.6 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has LAR at 25.8 points as 3-point favorites.
92% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 1 game.

Why Jake Bates

Start· medium

Starting PK with a massive leg. Big-range field goal threat beyond 55.

K9 in a dome with a 27.8 implied total — 2.9 projected XPs plus 1.7 makes and 50-plus range give Bates a top-10 floor.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
DET's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has DET at 27.8 points as 7-point favorites.

The call

The 27.8 implied team total as a 7-point favorite is the key number: that volume of scoring means 2.9 projected extra points on top of 1.7 made field goals, which is exactly how kickers hit 8-plus.
Dome game, no weather risk — one of the few variables that actually separates kickers is neutralized here.
Locked-in PK1 with no injury designation, 79% accuracy (27/34) and a 59-yard long with 50-plus makes in 4 games, so the long-range upside is live.
Only mild caution: 1.9 projected attempts and 1.4 red-zone stalls per game mean he needs the offense to keep stalling short of the goal line for field-goal volume, so the score leans XP-dependent.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Harrison Mevis	Jake Bates
Projected points	9.49.49.4	8.78.78.7
Consensus rank	K7	K8
Projected FG attempts	2.0	1.9
Red-zone stalls / game	1.6(2025)	1.4(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	25.8-3.0	27.8-7.0
Field-goal %	92.3%(2025)	79.4%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up