Cam Little or Harrison Mevis: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Cam Little and Harrison Mevis grade out even this week. Little's best edge is the consensus rank (K6 to K7), Mevis's best edge is the game script (25.8 implied points to 24.0) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Cam Little

K6JAXvs CLE

8.88.88.8 Projected Points

Start

Harrison Mevis

K7LARvs SF

9.49.49.4 Projected Points

Start

Why Cam Little

Start

Starting K with elite leg strength. Proven range well beyond 55 yards.

Start — K6 by consensus, projects K7 this week: 1.6 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.8 pts projected vs CLE.

2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
JAX's offense stalls in the red zone 1.6 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has JAX at 24 points as 7.5-point favorites.
88% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 6 games.

Why Harrison Mevis

Start

Starting K with strong leg. Big-distance range on field goals; limited career sample.

Start — K7 by consensus, projects K4 this week: 1.6 red-zone stalls a game, and 9.4 pts projected vs SF.

Calm forecast at kickoff.
2.0 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
LAR's offense stalls in the red zone 1.6 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has LAR at 25.8 points as 3-point favorites.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Cam Little	Harrison Mevis
Projected points	8.88.88.8	9.49.49.4
Consensus rank	K6	K7
Projected FG attempts	2.1	2.0
Red-zone stalls / game	1.6(2025)	1.6(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Calm forecast at kickoff
Implied total · spread	24.0-7.5	25.8-3.0
Field-goal %	88.2%(2025)	92.3%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1