Chase McLaughlin or Harrison Butker: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

McLaughlin vs. Butker: same role, same volume, coin-flip week

Neither kicker separates himself on volume or opportunity — both are PK1s facing near-identical attempt counts in offenses that stall in the red zone at nearly the same rate. McLaughlin's Buccaneers carry the larger spread and higher implied total, which in theory means more scoring drives, but his own red-zone stall rate is right in line with Butker's, so that edge doesn't translate into more kicks. Butker's Chiefs enter as a slight underdog per ESPN's recap 'Seattle Seahawks vs. Kansas City Chiefs Game Highlights' (ESPN 2026-08-29), and a game that stays tight often means more field-goal tries rather than fewer. With no weather forecast yet at either open-roof site, this is genuinely a matter of which offense stalls a yard short more often on Sunday.

What flips it: A wind advisory posted for either open-air stadium before kickoff would tip this to the more sheltered matchup.

Sources: ESPN · Aug 29, 2026

AI editor

Chase McLaughlin

K14TBvs CIN

8.48.48.4 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Harrison Butker

K13KCvs DEN

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Chase McLaughlin

Toss-Up· medium

Starting placekicker with big-leg range and a 65-yard career long. Reliable from distance, though his 84.9% career accuracy sits around league average.

K15 at 8.4 points: elite 84% accuracy and 65-yard range, but only 2.0 projected FG attempts and no weather forecast at an open roof

Tampa Bay's bigger spread gives McLaughlin more paths to extend drives into range rather than punch in scores.
His 65-yard long shows he's trusted from distance even though his season accuracy sits at just average.

The call

The leg is a real edge — 84% (32/38) with a 50-plus make in 7 games and a 65-yard long means he cashes attempts other kickers don't even take.
Volume is the problem: 1.8 made on just 2.0 attempts plus 2.1 extra points off a 23.5 implied total is a median K line, which is why he sits at K15 rather than in the start-every-week tier.
1.4 red-zone stalls per game is a healthy source of drive-ending kicks, and he's locked in as PK1 with no designation, so there's no role or availability risk.
Tips to start if the forecast at the open roof comes in calm; if wind shows up, a top-12 kicker in a dome is the cleaner play.

Why Harrison Butker

Start· medium

Veteran starting kicker with big-leg range. Proven under postseason pressure.

K10 with 8.5 projected, 87% accuracy and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game in a 22.5-point offense — enough volume to start in 12-team.

Kansas City's slightly higher red-zone stall rate means Butker's kick attempts hold up even in a lower-scoring script.
His five made 50-plus kicks this season edge McLaughlin's seven long makes as a distance track record within a shorter sample.

The call

Butker projects for 8.5 points at K10, which is above the replacement line in a 12-team league where only 12 kickers start.
Kansas City's implied total of 22.5 plus 1.5 red-zone stalls per game supports the 2.1 projected attempts and 2.1 extra points — his floor comes from a functional offense that also settles for field goals.
He's the locked-in PK1 with no injury designation, hitting 87% (33/38) with five 50-plus makes and a 59-yard long, so range isn't a limiter in a tight 2.5-point game.
Only real risk is the open roof with no forecast yet — heavy wind or precipitation against Denver would push this back toward a coin flip.

Latest on Butker

Seattle Seahawks vs. Kansas City Chiefs Game Highlights

ESPN · Aug 28, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Chase McLaughlin	Harrison Butker
Projected points	8.48.48.4	8.58.58.5
Consensus rank	K14	K13
Projected FG attempts	2.0	2.1
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.5(2025)
Implied total · spread	23.5+3.5	22.5-2.5
Field-goal %	84.2%(2025)	86.8%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	0–0+1 toss-up