Start Harrison Butker over Trey Smack — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Butker's track record and rank edge tip a razor-thin kicker call

Both kickers sit in the same tier of low-value streamers, and the points separating them are basically noise. What actually matters here is proof: Butker has a full NFL sample with 87% accuracy and five 50-plus makes, while Smack is a talented rookie leg with zero regular-season kicks to lean on. The rank gap between K13 and K17 reflects that experience gap more than raw scoring difference, and it's the biggest signal in the model. Green Bay's slightly friendlier implied total and dome shelter make Smack a fine streaming option, but Butker's proven accuracy under real bodies makes him the safer lean in a near-even matchup.

What flips it: A rough weather forecast surfacing for Kansas City late in the week would flip the lean toward Smack's dome shelter.

Sources: ESPN · Aug 29, 2026

AI editor

Harrison Butker

K13KCvs DEN

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start· medium

Trey Smack

K17GBvs MIN

8.38.38.3 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Why Harrison Butker

Start· medium

Veteran starting kicker with big-leg range. Proven under postseason pressure.

K10 with 8.5 projected, 87% accuracy and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game in a 22.5-point offense — enough volume to start in 12-team.

An established accuracy track record cuts bust risk versus a rookie with no NFL sample to judge.
Kansas City's projected attempt volume, even on a lower implied total, still edges Green Bay's expected work.

The call

Butker projects for 8.5 points at K10, which is above the replacement line in a 12-team league where only 12 kickers start.
Kansas City's implied total of 22.5 plus 1.5 red-zone stalls per game supports the 2.1 projected attempts and 2.1 extra points — his floor comes from a functional offense that also settles for field goals.
He's the locked-in PK1 with no injury designation, hitting 87% (33/38) with five 50-plus makes and a 59-yard long, so range isn't a limiter in a tight 2.5-point game.
Only real risk is the open roof with no forecast yet — heavy wind or precipitation against Denver would push this back toward a coin flip.

Latest on Butker

Seattle Seahawks vs. Kansas City Chiefs Game Highlights

ESPN · Aug 28, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Trey Smack

Toss-Up· medium

Rookie starting placekicker with a strong leg. Long-range kickoff and field-goal ability; no NFL regular-season sample yet.

K19 in a 12-team format, but a dome, a 23.0 implied total and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game keep him in the streaming mix.

Green Bay's higher implied total and shorter spread suggest steadier scoring drives, even if some stall short.
The dome removes any late-week weather swing that Butker's open-roof game could still see.

The call

The projection is the problem: 8.3 points and a K19 consensus rank put him just outside the every-week starter tier in a 12-team league, so a top-12 kicker on waivers should beat him out.
Everything around the volume is favorable — indoor game with no weather risk, a 23.0 implied team total and a 1.5-per-game red-zone stall rate that manufactures field goal tries on top of the 2.3 projected extra points.
He's the clear PK1 with no injury designation, so the role is locked; the ceiling is capped by only 2.0 projected attempts.
Tip-in: if the alternative on your waiver wire is a kicker with a higher implied total or more attempts, sit Smack; if you're choosing between him and an outdoor kicker in a low-total game, the dome makes him the play.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Harrison Butker	Trey Smack
Projected points	8.58.58.5	8.38.38.3
Consensus rank	K13	K17
Projected FG attempts	2.1	2.0
Red-zone stalls / game	1.5(2025)	1.5(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	22.5-2.5	23.0-1.5
Field-goal %	86.8%(2025)	—
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	0–0+1 toss-up