Spencer Shrader or Trey Smack: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Shrader vs. Smack: same implied total, same stalls-driven volume, no real edge

Both kickers sit behind offenses stuck at the same implied total, and both are locked in as their team's only option, so this comes down to shading rather than a clear separation. Shrader's game carries a slight edge in raw attempt volume, but Smack's dome removes even the small variance a retractable roof with no forecast yet could introduce. Smack's rookie status is the one thing to watch, since he has zero NFL regular-season sample to lean on, while Shrader has already shown he can hit from 50-plus. Neither offense is a shootout attack, but neither stalls enough to be scared off either.

What flips it: A Friday weather report turning ugly for Indianapolis pushes this toward Smack.

AI editor

Spencer Shrader

K18INDvs BAL

8.28.28.2 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Trey Smack

K17GBvs MIN

8.38.38.3 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Why Spencer Shrader

Toss-Up

Starting placekicker with a strong leg. Limited career sample and kickoff-touchback value.

Toss-up — K18 consensus and projection: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.2 pts projected vs BAL.

A slightly higher red-zone stall rate for IND means a few more field-goal tries instead of touchdowns, padding his floor.
He's already banked a proven 50-plus make, something Smack has no track record on at all.

Why Trey Smack

Toss-Up· medium

Rookie starting placekicker with a strong leg. Long-range kickoff and field-goal ability; no NFL regular-season sample yet.

K19 in a 12-team format, but a dome, a 23.0 implied total and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game keep him in the streaming mix.

Green Bay's spread has them favored, which typically means more competitive, sustained drives than a team playing from behind.
The dome fully eliminates weather as a variable, while Indy's forecast is still unsettled.

The call

The projection is the problem: 8.3 points and a K19 consensus rank put him just outside the every-week starter tier in a 12-team league, so a top-12 kicker on waivers should beat him out.
Everything around the volume is favorable — indoor game with no weather risk, a 23.0 implied team total and a 1.5-per-game red-zone stall rate that manufactures field goal tries on top of the 2.3 projected extra points.
He's the clear PK1 with no injury designation, so the role is locked; the ceiling is capped by only 2.0 projected attempts.
Tip-in: if the alternative on your waiver wire is a kicker with a higher implied total or more attempts, sit Smack; if you're choosing between him and an outdoor kicker in a low-total game, the dome makes him the play.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Spencer Shrader	Trey Smack
Projected points	8.28.28.2	8.38.38.3
Consensus rank	K18	K17
Projected FG attempts	2.1	2.0
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.5(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	23.0+3.5	23.0-1.5
Field-goal %	92.9%(2025)	—
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	0–0+1 toss-up