Matt Gay or Spencer Shrader: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Matt Gay and Spencer Shrader grade out even this week. Shrader's best edge is red-zone opportunity (1.4 to 1.2 stalls per game), and it isn't enough to separate them. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Matt Gay

K19LVvs MIA

8.18.18.1 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Spencer Shrader

K18INDvs BAL

8.28.28.2 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Why Matt Gay

Toss-Up

Veteran starting K with big-leg range and an 84.3% career mark, coming off a shaky 13-of-19 season in Washington before a midseason move to San Francisco.

Toss-up — K19 consensus and projection: kicks indoors, and 1.2 red-zone stalls a game.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
LV's offense stalls in the red zone 1.2 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has LV at 22.3 points as 3-point favorites.

Why Spencer Shrader

Toss-Up· medium

Starting placekicker with a strong leg. Limited career sample and kickoff-touchback value.

K18 with a 23.0 implied total and just 2.1 projected FG tries — fine as a plug, but a top-12 kicker in a higher-scoring game is the better play.

Calm forecast at kickoff.
2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
IND's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has IND at 23 points as 3.5-point dogs.

The call

Ranked K18 on 8.2 projected points, which is outside the 12-team starter tier — you're reaching if you have any top-12 option rostered.
The volume case is real: 1.4 red-zone stalls per game plus 2.1 projected attempts, and Shrader has been automatic at 93% (13/14) with a 52-yard long.
A 23.0 implied total with a 3.5-point spread caps the ceiling — this projects as a two-XP, two-FG day rather than a five-scoring-drive script.
Retractable roof and no injury designation remove the weather and availability risk; if the forecast comes in clean and your alternative is a low-total dome-less kicker, Shrader is startable.

Latest on Shrader

For Spencer Shrader, the kicking battle was not just against another player

Shrader was, and remains, the only kicker on the Colts' initial 53-man roster when it was released Sunday.

colts.com · Sep 4, 2026

Spencer Shrader wins Colts' kicking competition

Shrader connected on field goals from 60 and 61 yards during the preseason and emerged from a tight competition with Blake Grupe to be the Colts' kicker in 2026.

colts.com · Aug 30, 2026

As kicking competition enters final stretch, Colts believe they 'can't go wrong' with Blake Grupe or Spencer Shrader

Colts special teams coordinator Brian Mason said both Blake Grupe and Spencer Shrader will get extra work this week, with roster cuts due by 6 p.m. on Sunday.

colts.com · Aug 24, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Matt Gay	Spencer Shrader
Projected points	8.18.18.1	8.28.28.2
Consensus rank	K19	K18
Projected FG attempts	2.1	2.1
Red-zone stalls / game	1.2(2025)	1.4(2025)
Kicking conditions	Indoors, no weather risk	Retractable roof, calm forecast either way
Implied total · spread	22.3-3.0	23.0+3.5
Field-goal %	73.9%(2025)	92.9%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up