Start Trey Smack over Matt Gay — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Smack's Extra Red-Zone Stalls Barely Edge Gay's Proven Leg

Green Bay bogging down in the red zone slightly more often than Las Vegas is the whole case for Smack — more stalled drives mean more kick attempts, which matters more for a rookie with zero NFL sample to lean on. Gay counters with a real track record, a career mark above 84% and a 56-yard make on tape, but a shaky stretch this season and the league's more lopsided spread work against him — a bigger lead can mean Las Vegas scores touchdowns instead of settling for kicks. Smack's higher implied total and tighter spread point to a game that stays competitive and kick-heavy from start to finish. The margin here is razor-thin, so this call rides on red-zone tendencies more than either kicker's résumé.

What flips it: A stretch of crisper red-zone execution from Green Bay would erase Smack's volume edge and flip this back to Gay.

AI editor

Matt Gay

K19LVvs MIA

8.18.18.1 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Trey Smack

K17GBvs MIN

8.38.38.3 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Why Matt Gay

Toss-Up

Veteran starting K with big-leg range and an 84.3% career mark, coming off a shaky 13-of-19 season in Washington before a midseason move to San Francisco.

Toss-up — K19 consensus and projection: kicks indoors, and 1.2 red-zone stalls a game.

A career accuracy mark above 84% and a 56-yard long give him more margin if a kick actually matters late.
The larger spread means Las Vegas is more likely to pull away, which can turn red-zone trips into touchdowns instead of field goals.

Why Trey Smack

Toss-Up· medium

Rookie starting placekicker with a strong leg. Long-range kickoff and field-goal ability; no NFL regular-season sample yet.

K19 in a 12-team format, but a dome, a 23.0 implied total and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game keep him in the streaming mix.

Green Bay stalling more often in the red zone each week means more possessions end in a kick rather than six points.
The tighter spread points to a competitive game script that keeps drives — and kick attempts — coming all four quarters.

The call

The projection is the problem: 8.3 points and a K19 consensus rank put him just outside the every-week starter tier in a 12-team league, so a top-12 kicker on waivers should beat him out.
Everything around the volume is favorable — indoor game with no weather risk, a 23.0 implied team total and a 1.5-per-game red-zone stall rate that manufactures field goal tries on top of the 2.3 projected extra points.
He's the clear PK1 with no injury designation, so the role is locked; the ceiling is capped by only 2.0 projected attempts.
Tip-in: if the alternative on your waiver wire is a kicker with a higher implied total or more attempts, sit Smack; if you're choosing between him and an outdoor kicker in a low-total game, the dome makes him the play.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Matt Gay	Trey Smack
Projected points	8.18.18.1	8.38.38.3
Consensus rank	K19	K17
Projected FG attempts	2.1	2.0
Red-zone stalls / game	1.2(2025)	1.5(2025)
Kicking conditions	Indoors, no weather risk	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	22.3-3.0	23.0-1.5
Field-goal %	73.9%(2025)	—
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up