Start Trey Smack over Tyler Bass — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Smack — the consensus rank and projection edges are too wide to ignore.

Trey Smack is the higher consensus play (K17 to K20) and projects 8.3 to Bass's 7.5. Bass's edge is the game script, 23.5 implied points to 23.0. The gap is narrow.

Trey Smack

K17GBvs MIN

8.38.38.3 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Tyler Bass

K20BUFvs HOU

7.57.57.5 Projected Points

Sit

Why Trey Smack

Toss-Up· medium

Rookie starting placekicker with a strong leg. Long-range kickoff and field-goal ability; no NFL regular-season sample yet.

Dome game and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game keep the floor safe, but K17 with a 23.0 implied total is streamer territory in 12-team leagues.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
2.0 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
GB's offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has GB at 23 points as 1.5-point favorites.

The call

Weather is a non-factor — indoor dome, no wind or precipitation risk, so the 1.7-of-2.0 field goal projection and 2.3 extra points should hold.
The offense stalling in the red zone 1.5 times per game is the reason he has a floor at all; those drives convert into the field goal attempts that carry his 8.3 projection.
A 23.0 implied team total and a -1.5 spread point to a tight, moderate-scoring game — enough volume to be usable, not enough to push him past the top 12.
He's the locked-in PK1 with no designation, so if your alternative is a kicker in an outdoor game or on a lower-total offense, Smack is the play; a top-12 kicker with a higher implied total tips it the other way.

Why Tyler Bass

Sit

Starting placekicker. Strong leg on kickoffs and long-range attempts.

Sit — K20 by consensus, projects K27 this week: 1.3 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.5 pts projected vs HOU.

Calm forecast at kickoff.
1.8 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
BUF's offense stalls in the red zone 1.3 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has BUF at 23.5 points as 1.5-point favorites.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Trey Smack	Tyler Bass
Projected points	8.38.38.3	7.57.57.5
Consensus rank	K17	K20
Projected FG attempts	2.0	1.8
Red-zone stalls / game	1.5(2025)	1.3(2025)
Kicking conditions	Indoors, no weather risk	Retractable roof, calm forecast either way
Implied total · spread	23.0-1.5	23.5-1.5
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—