Start Spencer Shrader over Tyler Bass — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Shrader — the projection and attempt volume edges are too wide to ignore.

Spencer Shrader projects 8.2 to Bass's 7.5 and projects for more attempts (2.1 to 1.8). Bass's edge is the game script, 23.5 implied points to 23.0. The gap is narrow.

Spencer Shrader

K18INDvs BAL

8.28.28.2 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Tyler Bass

K20BUFvs HOU

7.57.57.5 Projected Points

Sit

Why Spencer Shrader

Toss-Up· medium

Starting placekicker with a strong leg. Limited career sample and kickoff-touchback value.

K18 with a 23.0 implied total and just 2.1 projected FG tries — fine as a plug, but a top-12 kicker in a higher-scoring game is the better play.

2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
IND's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has IND at 23 points as 3.5-point dogs.
93% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 1 game.

The call

Ranked K18 on 8.2 projected points, which is outside the 12-team starter tier — you're reaching if you have any top-12 option rostered.
The volume case is real: 1.4 red-zone stalls per game plus 2.1 projected attempts, and Shrader has been automatic at 93% (13/14) with a 52-yard long.
A 23.0 implied total with a 3.5-point spread caps the ceiling — this projects as a two-XP, two-FG day rather than a five-scoring-drive script.
Retractable roof and no injury designation remove the weather and availability risk; if the forecast comes in clean and your alternative is a low-total dome-less kicker, Shrader is startable.

Why Tyler Bass

Sit

Starting placekicker. Strong leg on kickoffs and long-range attempts.

Sit — K20 by consensus, projects K27 this week: 1.3 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.5 pts projected vs HOU.

1.8 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
BUF's offense stalls in the red zone 1.3 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has BUF at 23.5 points as 1.5-point favorites.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Spencer Shrader	Tyler Bass
Projected points	8.28.28.2	7.57.57.5
Consensus rank	K18	K20
Projected FG attempts	2.1	1.8
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.3(2025)
Implied total · spread	23.0+3.5	23.5-1.5
Field-goal %	92.9%(2025)	—
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—