Tyler Bass or Wil Lutz: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Tyler Bass and Wil Lutz grade out even this week. Bass's best edge is the game script (23.5 implied points to 20.0), Lutz's best edge is red-zone opportunity (1.4 to 1.3 stalls per game) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Tyler Bass

K20BUFvs HOU

7.57.57.5 Projected Points

Sit

Wil Lutz

K20DENvs KC

7.67.67.6 Projected Points

Sit

Why Tyler Bass

Sit

Starting placekicker. Strong leg on kickoffs and long-range attempts.

Sit — K20 by consensus, projects K27 this week: 1.3 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.5 pts projected vs HOU.

10 mph wind at kickoff (retractable roof, likely closed) — a real drag on long tries.
1.8 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
BUF's offense stalls in the red zone 1.3 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has BUF at 23.5 points as 1.5-point favorites.

Why Wil Lutz

Sit

Veteran starting placekicker. Reliable leg with altitude experience on long-range attempts.

Sit — K20 by consensus, projects K24 this week: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.6 pts projected vs KC.

1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
DEN's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has DEN at 20 points as 2.5-point dogs.
88% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 4 games.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Tyler Bass	Wil Lutz
Projected points	7.57.57.5	7.67.67.6
Consensus rank	K20	K20
Projected FG attempts	1.8	1.9
Red-zone stalls / game	1.3(2025)	1.4(2025)
Kicking conditions	10 mph wind forecast at kickoff (retractable roof, likely closed in poor weather)	—
Implied total · spread	23.5-1.5	20.0+2.5
Field-goal %	—	87.5%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1