Spencer Shrader or Wil Lutz: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Shrader — the game script and projection edges are too wide to ignore.
Spencer Shrader plays in the better game script (23.0 implied team points to 20.0) and projects 8.2 to Lutz's 7.6. Lutz's edge is red-zone opportunity, 1.4 to 1.4 stalls per game. The gap is narrow.
Spencer Shrader
8.28.28.2 Projected Points
Wil Lutz
7.67.67.6 Projected Points
Why Spencer Shrader
Toss-Up· mediumStarting placekicker with a strong leg. Limited career sample and kickoff-touchback value.
K18 with a 23.0 implied total and just 2.1 projected FG tries — fine as a plug, but a top-12 kicker in a higher-scoring game is the better play.
- 12 mph wind at kickoff (retractable roof, likely closed) — a real drag on long tries.
- 2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
- IND's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has IND at 23 points as 3.5-point dogs.
The call
- Ranked K18 on 8.2 projected points, which is outside the 12-team starter tier — you're reaching if you have any top-12 option rostered.
- The volume case is real: 1.4 red-zone stalls per game plus 2.1 projected attempts, and Shrader has been automatic at 93% (13/14) with a 52-yard long.
- A 23.0 implied total with a 3.5-point spread caps the ceiling — this projects as a two-XP, two-FG day rather than a five-scoring-drive script.
- Retractable roof and no injury designation remove the weather and availability risk; if the forecast comes in clean and your alternative is a low-total dome-less kicker, Shrader is startable.
Latest on Shrader
Spencer Shrader remains in a close kicking competition after making both of his field-goal attempts in the game.
5 Colts Things: Seth McGowan, Spencer Shrader, CJ Allen and other notes from preseason Week 2colts.com · Aug 23, 2026Shrader was, and remains, the only kicker on the Colts' initial 53-man roster when it was released Sunday.
Shrader connected on field goals from 60 and 61 yards during the preseason and emerged from a tight competition with Blake Grupe to be the Colts' kicker in 2026.
Colts special teams coordinator Brian Mason said both Blake Grupe and Spencer Shrader will get extra work this week, with roster cuts due by 6 p.m. on Sunday.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Wil Lutz
SitVeteran starting placekicker. Reliable leg with altitude experience on long-range attempts.
Sit — K20 by consensus, projects K24 this week: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.6 pts projected vs KC.
- 1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
- DEN's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
- Vegas has DEN at 20 points as 2.5-point dogs.
- 88% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 4 games.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Spencer Shrader | Wil Lutz |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 8.28.28.2 | 7.67.67.6 |
| Consensus rank | K18 | K20 |
| Projected FG attempts | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Red-zone stalls / game | 1.4(2025) | 1.4(2025) |
| Kicking conditions | 12 mph wind forecast at kickoff (retractable roof, likely closed in poor weather) | — |
| Implied total · spread | 23.0+3.5 | 20.0+2.5 |
| Field-goal % | 92.9%(2025) | 87.5%(2025) |
| Depth chart | K1 | K1 |
| Start/Sit record | 0–0+1 toss-up | — |
Signal breakdown
- 8.2 vs 7.6 projected PPR pointsSpencer Shrader +
- Rank 18 vs 20Spencer Shrader +
- 2.1 vs 1.9 projected attemptsSpencer Shrader +
- 1.4 vs 1.4 red-zone stalls per gameWil Lutz +
- Kicking weathereven
- Implied 23.0 vs 20.0 team pointsSpencer Shrader +
- No injury designationseven
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