Chase McLaughlin or Trey Smack: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Tampa stalls in the red zone 1.4 times per game, which is exactly the profile that turns a 23.5 implied total into FG attempts rather than touchdown-only extra points — the sheet projects 2.0 attempts plus 2.1 extra points.
• McLaughlin is 32-of-38 (84%) with a make from 50-plus in 7 games and a long of 65, so drives that stall near midfield still convert into points for you — that's real upside above his 8.4 projection.
• Locked in as PK1 with no injury designation in a 3.5-point game, meaning the script stays competitive and the offense keeps kicking rather than sitting on a blowout lead.
• Only caution is the open roof with no forecast yet; if game-day wind spikes, a dome kicker on the waiver wire becomes the safer play.

The call

• Weather is a non-factor — indoor dome, no wind or precipitation risk, so the 1.7-of-2.0 field goal projection and 2.3 extra points should hold.
• The offense stalling in the red zone 1.5 times per game is the reason he has a floor at all; those drives convert into the field goal attempts that carry his 8.3 projection.
• A 23.0 implied team total and a -1.5 spread point to a tight, moderate-scoring game — enough volume to be usable, not enough to push him past the top 12.
• He's the locked-in PK1 with no designation, so if your alternative is a kicker in an outdoor game or on a lower-total offense, Smack is the play; a top-12 kicker with a higher implied total tips it the other way.