Start Chase McLaughlin over Spencer Shrader — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

McLaughlin edges Shrader in a near-mirror matchup of two low-volume PK1s

Neither kicker is walking into a shootout: both offenses project south of two field-goal attempts and stall in the red zone at the same 1.4 clip, so this comes down to margins. McLaughlin's higher consensus standing and Tampa Bay's slightly richer implied total nudge him ahead, and his 65-yard long gives him more margin if the game turns into a distance battle. Shrader's blistering 93% clip this year is a small sample, and a retractable roof removes the wind-card upside that sometimes bails out a low-attempt kicker. The real risk here is volume, not accuracy — either kicker can get shut out of points if their offense stalls one more time than usual.

What flips it: A retractable-roof closure detail or added wind risk at TB's open stadium would swing this toward Shrader.

AI editor

Chase McLaughlin

K14TBvs CIN

8.48.48.4 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Spencer Shrader

K18INDvs BAL

8.28.28.2 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Chase McLaughlin

Toss-Up· medium

Starting placekicker with big-leg range and a 65-yard career long. Reliable from distance, though his 84.9% career accuracy sits around league average.

K15 at 8.4 points: elite 84% accuracy and 65-yard range, but only 2.0 projected FG attempts and no weather forecast at an open roof

His 65-yard long and multi-game 50-plus track record give him a real shot at bonus points if TB stalls again
Ranked well ahead of Shrader among industry kickers, a signal that outside data favors his role and offense more

The call

The leg is a real edge — 84% (32/38) with a 50-plus make in 7 games and a 65-yard long means he cashes attempts other kickers don't even take.
Volume is the problem: 1.8 made on just 2.0 attempts plus 2.1 extra points off a 23.5 implied total is a median K line, which is why he sits at K15 rather than in the start-every-week tier.
1.4 red-zone stalls per game is a healthy source of drive-ending kicks, and he's locked in as PK1 with no designation, so there's no role or availability risk.
Tips to start if the forecast at the open roof comes in calm; if wind shows up, a top-12 kicker in a dome is the cleaner play.

Why Spencer Shrader

Toss-Up

Starting placekicker with a strong leg. Limited career sample and kickoff-touchback value.

Toss-up — K18 consensus and projection: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.2 pts projected vs BAL.

This year's accuracy is elite, so almost anything he touches inside range should go through
A retractable roof takes weather variance off the table entirely for game night

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Chase McLaughlin	Spencer Shrader
Projected points	8.48.48.4	8.28.28.2
Consensus rank	K14	K18
Projected FG attempts	2.0	2.1
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.4(2025)
Implied total · spread	23.5+3.5	23.0+3.5
Field-goal %	84.2%(2025)	92.9%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	0–0+1 toss-up