Evan McPherson or Harrison Mevis: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Mevis edges McPherson as stalled drives beat total points at kicker

Forget the team totals for a second — a kicker feeds off drives that die at the 15, not just an offense that reaches the red zone. That's the case for Mevis: his team stalls more often than Bengals do, which means more field-goal tries even though the Rams project fewer total points. McPherson's sample is deeper and his accuracy track record is more proven, but this week's call comes down to volume and role trajectory, and Mevis projects for more attempts on a team leaning on him more. The margin here is thin enough that either kicker is a fine start, and this is about expected opportunity, not a leap in skill.

What flips it: A soft roof or wind report for either venue that changes projected attempts materially.

AI editor

Evan McPherson

Evan McPherson

K12CINvs TB

Projected Points

Start· medium
Harrison Mevis

Harrison Mevis

K7LARvs SF

Projected Points

Start

Why Evan McPherson

Start· medium

Starting placekicker with big-leg range. Proven clutch postseason performer.

27.0 implied total plus 89% accuracy (25/28) and a 63-yard long make McPherson a fine K play — 8.5 projected points, 2.7 XPs baked in.

  • A 27.0 implied total gives Cincinnati more scoring drives overall, even if fewer stall short.
  • 89% accuracy across 28 attempts is a much deeper sample than Mevis's 13 kicks this season.

The call

  • A 27.0 implied team total is a top-tier kicker environment: 2.7 projected extra points plus 1.9 field-goal tries gives him one of the better volume floors at the position.
  • He's been elite and locked in as PK1 — 89% accuracy on 25-of-28 with a 63-yard long and 50-plus makes in four games, so even stalled drives outside the 40 convert.
  • Only 1.1 red-zone stalls per game is a mild ceiling cap — this offense finishes drives, which pushes his scoring toward XPs rather than three-pointers.
  • Open roof with no forecast yet is the one thing to monitor; heavy wind would knock him back into the toss-up tier at K14.

Why Harrison Mevis

Start

Starting K with strong leg. Big-distance range on field goals; limited career sample.

Start — K7 by consensus, projects K4 this week: 1.6 red-zone stalls a game, and 9.4 pts projected vs SF.

  • 1.6 red-zone stalls per game means the Rams' offense is bailing him out with more field-goal chances.
  • K7 consensus rank reflects a team trusting him in more scoring-adjacent situations than McPherson gets.

Head-to-head stats

MetricEvan McPhersonHarrison Mevis
Projected points
Consensus rankK12K7
Projected FG attempts1.92.0
Red-zone stalls / game1.1(2025)1.6(2025)
Implied total · spread27.0-3.525.8-3.0
Field-goal %89.3%(2025)92.3%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1

Signal breakdown

  • 8.5 vs 9.4 projected PPR pointsHarrison Mevis +
  • Rank 12 vs 7Harrison Mevis +
  • 1.9 vs 2.0 projected attemptsHarrison Mevis +
  • 1.1 vs 1.6 red-zone stalls per gameHarrison Mevis +
  • Kicking weathereven
  • Implied 27.0 vs 25.8 team pointsEvan McPherson +
  • No injury designationseven

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