Start Jake Bates over Evan McPherson — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Bates — the consensus rank and red-zone opportunity edges are too wide to ignore.

Jake Bates is the higher consensus play (K8 to K12) and gets more red-zone stalls to kick from (1.4 to 1.1 per game). No signal favors McPherson this week. The gap is narrow.

Evan McPherson

K12CINvs TB

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start· medium

Jake Bates

K8DETvs NO

8.78.78.7 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Evan McPherson

Start· medium

Starting placekicker with big-leg range. Proven clutch postseason performer.

27.0 implied total plus 89% accuracy (25/28) and a 63-yard long make McPherson a fine K play — 8.5 projected points, 2.7 XPs baked in.

1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
CIN's offense stalls in the red zone 1.1 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has CIN at 27 points as 3.5-point favorites.
89% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 4 games.

The call

A 27.0 implied team total is a top-tier kicker environment: 2.7 projected extra points plus 1.9 field-goal tries gives him one of the better volume floors at the position.
He's been elite and locked in as PK1 — 89% accuracy on 25-of-28 with a 63-yard long and 50-plus makes in four games, so even stalled drives outside the 40 convert.
Only 1.1 red-zone stalls per game is a mild ceiling cap — this offense finishes drives, which pushes his scoring toward XPs rather than three-pointers.
Open roof with no forecast yet is the one thing to monitor; heavy wind would knock him back into the toss-up tier at K14.

Why Jake Bates

Start· medium

Starting PK with a massive leg. Big-range field goal threat beyond 55.

K9 in a dome with a 27.8 implied total — 2.9 projected XPs plus 1.7 makes and 50-plus range give Bates a top-10 floor.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
DET's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has DET at 27.8 points as 7-point favorites.

The call

The 27.8 implied team total as a 7-point favorite is the key number: that volume of scoring means 2.9 projected extra points on top of 1.7 made field goals, which is exactly how kickers hit 8-plus.
Dome game, no weather risk — one of the few variables that actually separates kickers is neutralized here.
Locked-in PK1 with no injury designation, 79% accuracy (27/34) and a 59-yard long with 50-plus makes in 4 games, so the long-range upside is live.
Only mild caution: 1.9 projected attempts and 1.4 red-zone stalls per game mean he needs the offense to keep stalling short of the goal line for field-goal volume, so the score leans XP-dependent.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Evan McPherson	Jake Bates
Projected points	8.58.58.5	8.78.78.7
Consensus rank	K12	K8
Projected FG attempts	1.9	1.9
Red-zone stalls / game	1.1(2025)	1.4(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	27.0-3.5	27.8-7.0
Field-goal %	89.3%(2025)	79.4%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up