Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft: Who Should You Start?

The call

• A 17% target share on 62% of snaps is a genuine TE1 workload, and Andrews' value is concentrated near the goal line, where Baltimore's 26.5 implied total gives him multiple scoring looks.
• Vegas has the Ravens as 3.5-point favorites with a healthy team total — the neutral-to-positive script keeps the offense balanced instead of pass-chasing away from the tight end.
• The Colts grade 20 of 32 vs the position, a mild edge, but the 0-game sample means it shouldn't move the needle either way.
• Risk is the usual Andrews boom-bust: 10.1 projected points is TE11 territory, so a touchdown-less afternoon leaves him near replacement level — you're starting him for the ceiling.

The call

• A 20% target share over eight games is elite for the position — Kraft is a genuine focal point in this passing game, not a matchup-dependent streamer, and 86% snaps confirm the every-down role.
• The DvP composite lists Minnesota 7 of 32 against tight ends, but it's a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence — that number shouldn't override established volume.
• Game script cooperates: a 1.5-point spread with a 23.0 implied total means a competitive, two-way script that keeps Green Bay throwing rather than salting a lead away.
• The only real risk is the questionable tag. If he's downgraded or ruled out pregame, pivot; short of that, TE13 with this usage beats the replacement-level tight end on your bench.