Jake Ferguson or Tucker Kraft: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Ferguson is the Cowboys' clear starting tight end at a 17% target share on 67% of the snaps — that's TE1 volume, and volume is what decides tight end weeks in PPR.
• The 25.0 implied total and -1.5 spread point to a competitive, pass-heavy script where Dallas keeps throwing to the middle of the field rather than sitting on a lead.
• The DvP composite lists the Giants 7th toughest vs tight ends, but it's a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence — not enough to bench a locked-in starter over.
• No injury designation and a 9.8-point projection at TE12 means he clears the typical waiver-level replacement in a 12-team league.

The call

• Role is locked and elite for the position: 86% snap share and a 20% target share over eight games is target-hog usage that plays in any script.
• The opponent's 7-of-32 DvP composite is built on a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence — that's not a reason to bench a TE9 with this workload.
• Game environment is fine: a 23.0 implied total in a 1.5-point game means Green Bay stays balanced and Kraft sees his normal volume rather than getting scripted out.
• The one real risk is the questionable tag — if he's downgraded or limited late in the week, pivot; otherwise he's a confident start.