Jake Ferguson or Travis Kelce: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Ferguson is the Cowboys' clear starting tight end at a 17% target share on 67% of the snaps — that's TE1 volume, and volume is what decides tight end weeks in PPR.
• The 25.0 implied total and -1.5 spread point to a competitive, pass-heavy script where Dallas keeps throwing to the middle of the field rather than sitting on a lead.
• The DvP composite lists the Giants 7th toughest vs tight ends, but it's a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence — not enough to bench a locked-in starter over.
• No injury designation and a 9.8-point projection at TE12 means he clears the typical waiver-level replacement in a 12-team league.

The call

• Role is the whole case: 82% snap share and a 20% target share over 17 games mean Kelce is on the field and targeted like a featured option regardless of matchup.
• Denver rates a middling 17 of 32 on the DvP composite, and the sample confidence is 0.00 — there's nothing here scary enough to bench a TE with this volume.
• A 2.5-point spread with a 22.5 implied total points to a competitive, pass-balanced script rather than a run-out-the-clock blowout, which protects his target floor.
• The 9.8 projection and TE11 rank are modest, so this is a solid TE1 start rather than a league-winner — the only real risk is a touchdown-dependent week where a big-play TE outscores him.