Dallas Goedert or Travis Kelce: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Goedert's 20% target share on an 85% snap share over 15 games is elite volume for the position; he's the clear pass-game hub at TE for Philadelphia.
• A 26.0 implied team total and a 5.5-point favorite spread points to a script with red-zone chances rather than garbage-time desperation — Goedert is a scoring threat in that range.
• 10.9 projected points at TE7 clears the bar comfortably over a replacement streamer in 12-team PPR, and he carries no injury designation.
• The DvP composite of 21 of 32 is off a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so the matchup grade is noise here — role and game environment carry the call.

The call

• The role is the case: 82% snap share and a 20% target share over 17 games is elite tight end usage, and in PPR that volume produces a reliable catch floor even on quiet weeks.
• Game script cooperates — a 2.5-point spread with a 22.5 implied total means a competitive game where Kansas City keeps throwing rather than sitting on a lead.
• Matchup is neutral, not scary: Denver grades 17 of 32 on the DvP composite, and that mark carries a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't move the needle either way.
• Risk is the modest 9.8-point projection and TE10 rank — he's a low-end TE1, not a difference-maker, but that still beats a typical waiver-tier replacement in a 12-team league.