Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce: Who Should You Start?

The call

• LaPorta is the locked-in every-down tight end: 91% snap share and a 17% target share over nine games, which is elite volume at a thin position.
• Detroit's 27.8 implied total as a 7-point favorite means plenty of red-zone and scoring chances, and LaPorta is a primary target in that offense.
• The New Orleans matchup is neutral at 13 of 32 on the DvP composite, but that's a 0-game sample with zero confidence — role and team total drive this call, not matchup.
• Only real risk is the questionable designation; if he's limited or inactive you need a pivot, so confirm status before lineups lock.

The call

• Role is the whole case: 82% snap share and a 20% target share over 17 games mean Kelce is on the field and targeted like a featured option regardless of matchup.
• Denver rates a middling 17 of 32 on the DvP composite, and the sample confidence is 0.00 — there's nothing here scary enough to bench a TE with this volume.
• A 2.5-point spread with a 22.5 implied total points to a competitive, pass-balanced script rather than a run-out-the-clock blowout, which protects his target floor.
• The 9.8 projection and TE11 rank are modest, so this is a solid TE1 start rather than a league-winner — the only real risk is a touchdown-dependent week where a big-play TE outscores him.