Jake Ferguson or Kyle Pitts Sr.: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Ferguson's 17% target share over 17 games is genuine TE1 usage — he's a core piece of this passing game, not a matchup-dependent streamer.
• A 25.0 implied total and a 1.5-point spread point to a competitive script where Dallas keeps throwing; that's ideal for a high-volume seam and short-area target.
• The DvP composite reads 7 of 32 (tough), but it's a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence — no reason to let an empty matchup number override locked-in role.
• No injury designation and a clear TE1 slot on the depth chart; the 9.8-point projection is above what a typical 12-team replacement TE offers.

The call

• A 23% target share at tight end is elite-tier usage, and the 88% snap rate means Pitts is on the field for every situational package — that floor alone clears replacement level at a thin position.
• Consensus has him TE7 at 10.4 projected points; you are not finding a better option on the waiver wire in a 12-team league.
• The DvP composite lists Pittsburgh 27 of 32 (32 = softest), but it carries a 0-game sample and 0.00 confidence, so treat it as neutral rather than a bonus.
• The real drag is the 19.8 implied team total with a 3.0-point spread — a low-scoring script caps the ceiling, but the target volume protects the floor.