Courtland Sutton or DJ Moore: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Role is locked in: 85% snap share and 21% target share over 17 games — he sees the ball regardless of the WR-2 label on the depth chart.
• The matchup grade (10 of 32) reads tough but comes off a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't override a proven usage profile.
• A 20.0 implied total and 2.5-point spread point to a competitive game; if Denver trails, the target volume only goes up in a pass-first script.
• Risk is efficiency, not opportunity — 11.7 projected points is flex-caliber, and WR31 is inside the startable range in a 12-team PPR lineup.

The call

• The 11.6-point projection and WR31 consensus rank put him squarely in WR3/flex territory in 12-team PPR, ahead of a typical replacement option.
• Role is locked in: 85% snap share over 17 games with a 16% target share, and no injury designation on the sheet.
• Game script cooperates — a 1.5-point spread and a 23.5 implied total mean neither a blowout nor a run-out-the-clock script; he should see full-game volume.
• Risk: the DvP composite ranks HOU 7 of 32 against the position, but that's a 0-game sample at 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't outweigh the usage; the reported move to Buffalo also adds target-share uncertainty in a new offense.