Jake Bates or Tyler Loop: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Jake Bates and Tyler Loop grade out even this week. Bates's best edge is the consensus rank (K8 to K12), Loop's best edge is red-zone opportunity (1.9 to 1.4 stalls per game) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Jake Bates

K8DETvs NO

8.78.78.7 Projected Points

Start· medium

Tyler Loop

K12BALvs IND

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Jake Bates

Start· medium

Starting PK with a massive leg. Big-range field goal threat beyond 55.

K9 in a dome with a 27.8 implied total — 2.9 projected XPs plus 1.7 makes and 50-plus range give Bates a top-10 floor.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
DET's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has DET at 27.8 points as 7-point favorites.

The call

The 27.8 implied team total as a 7-point favorite is the key number: that volume of scoring means 2.9 projected extra points on top of 1.7 made field goals, which is exactly how kickers hit 8-plus.
Dome game, no weather risk — one of the few variables that actually separates kickers is neutralized here.
Locked-in PK1 with no injury designation, 79% accuracy (27/34) and a 59-yard long with 50-plus makes in 4 games, so the long-range upside is live.
Only mild caution: 1.9 projected attempts and 1.4 red-zone stalls per game mean he needs the offense to keep stalling short of the goal line for field-goal volume, so the score leans XP-dependent.

Why Tyler Loop

Start· medium

Starting placekicker who handles kickoffs. Accurate inside 50 but limited range, hitting just 1-of-4 from 50-plus as a rookie with a long of 52.

K12 with a 26.5 implied total, 88% accuracy and a retractable-roof venue — locked-in PK1 with 4.6 projected scoring chances.

2.0 FG tries projected, right at the 2.0 league median this week.
BAL's offense stalls in the red zone 1.9 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has BAL at 26.5 points as 3.5-point favorites.
88% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 1 game.

The call

A 26.5 implied team total is top-tier kicker territory: the projection has him at 1.7 made field goals plus 2.6 extra points, giving multiple paths to a usable score.
Loop has been automatic at 88% (30/34) with a long of 52, so the attempts he gets should convert; the offense also stalls in the red zone 1.9 times per game, which is exactly the profile that feeds field-goal volume.
Retractable roof removes most weather risk, and as the unquestioned PK1 with no injury designation there's no snap-share or availability concern.
Downside is the modest 2.0 projected attempts — if the offense finishes drives with touchdowns instead of stalling, he lives on extra points, but that's the good version of the game script anyway.

Latest on Loop

Minter backs Loop as Ravens add kicker competition in Moody

Baltimore signed Jake Moody to the practice squad three days after Tyler Loop missed two kicks in the preseason finale.

ESPN · Aug 31, 2026

Jesse Minter still has confidence in K Tyler Loop

Jamison Hensley breaks down the kicking situation for the Ravens.

ESPN · Aug 31, 2026

K Tyler Loop struggles in preseason finale

Jamison Hensley discusses whether Tyler Loop's job is in jeopardy after a lackluster preseason.

ESPN · Aug 29, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Jake Bates	Tyler Loop
Projected points	8.78.78.7	8.58.58.5
Consensus rank	K8	K12
Projected FG attempts	1.9	2.0
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.9(2025)
Kicking conditions	Indoors, no weather risk	—
Implied total · spread	27.8-7.0	26.5-3.5
Field-goal %	79.4%(2025)	88.2%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—