Chris Boswell or Evan McPherson: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Too close to call — the edges cancel out.

Chris Boswell and Evan McPherson grade out even this week. Boswell's best edge is the consensus rank (K6 to K12), McPherson's best edge is the game script (27.0 implied points to 22.8) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.

Chris Boswell

K6PITvs ATL

9.09.09.0 Projected Points

Start· medium

Evan McPherson

K12CINvs TB

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Chris Boswell

Start· medium

Starting PK and one of the league's most accurate. Big leg with proven cold-weather clutch production.

Boswell is the K12 play with a 22.8 implied total, 2.1 projected FG tries and 1.2 red-zone stalls per game feeding the leg.

2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
PIT's offense stalls in the red zone 1.2 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has PIT at 22.8 points as 3-point favorites.
84% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 6 games.

The call

Consensus K12 at 9.0 projected points is squarely startable in a 12-team league — no replacement-level kicker beats that baseline.
Pittsburgh's 22.8 implied total plus 1.2 red-zone stalls per game funnels drives into field-goal tries: 1.9 makes on 2.1 attempts with 2.4 extra points projected.
He's the locked-in PK1 with no designation, hitting 84% (27/32) and connecting from 50-plus in six games with a 60-yard long, so distance isn't a cap on his range.
Only real wrinkle is an open roof with no forecast yet — check wind before kickoff, but nothing in the sheet suggests a problem.

Why Evan McPherson

Start· medium

Starting placekicker with big-leg range. Proven clutch postseason performer.

27.0 implied total plus 89% accuracy (25/28) and a 63-yard long make McPherson a fine K play — 8.5 projected points, 2.7 XPs baked in.

1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
CIN's offense stalls in the red zone 1.1 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has CIN at 27 points as 3.5-point favorites.
89% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 4 games.

The call

A 27.0 implied team total is a top-tier kicker environment: 2.7 projected extra points plus 1.9 field-goal tries gives him one of the better volume floors at the position.
He's been elite and locked in as PK1 — 89% accuracy on 25-of-28 with a 63-yard long and 50-plus makes in four games, so even stalled drives outside the 40 convert.
Only 1.1 red-zone stalls per game is a mild ceiling cap — this offense finishes drives, which pushes his scoring toward XPs rather than three-pointers.
Open roof with no forecast yet is the one thing to monitor; heavy wind would knock him back into the toss-up tier at K14.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Chris Boswell	Evan McPherson
Projected points	9.09.09.0	8.58.58.5
Consensus rank	K6	K12
Projected FG attempts	2.1	1.9
Red-zone stalls / game	1.2(2025)	1.1(2025)
Implied total · spread	22.8-3.0	27.0-3.5
Field-goal %	84.4%(2025)	89.3%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1