Sam LaPorta or Tucker Kraft: Who Should You Start?

The call

• LaPorta is the locked-in every-down tight end: 91% snap share and a 17% target share over nine games, which is elite volume at a thin position.
• Detroit's 27.8 implied total as a 7-point favorite means plenty of red-zone and scoring chances, and LaPorta is a primary target in that offense.
• The New Orleans matchup is neutral at 13 of 32 on the DvP composite, but that's a 0-game sample with zero confidence — role and team total drive this call, not matchup.
• Only real risk is the questionable designation; if he's limited or inactive you need a pivot, so confirm status before lineups lock.

The call

• Role is locked and elite for the position: 86% snap share and a 20% target share over eight games is target-hog usage that plays in any script.
• The opponent's 7-of-32 DvP composite is built on a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence — that's not a reason to bench a TE9 with this workload.
• Game environment is fine: a 23.0 implied total in a 1.5-point game means Green Bay stays balanced and Kraft sees his normal volume rather than getting scripted out.
• The one real risk is the questionable tag — if he's downgraded or limited late in the week, pivot; otherwise he's a confident start.