Travis Kelce or Tucker Kraft: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Role is the whole case: 82% snap share and a 20% target share over 17 games mean Kelce is on the field and targeted like a featured option regardless of matchup.
• Denver rates a middling 17 of 32 on the DvP composite, and the sample confidence is 0.00 — there's nothing here scary enough to bench a TE with this volume.
• A 2.5-point spread with a 22.5 implied total points to a competitive, pass-balanced script rather than a run-out-the-clock blowout, which protects his target floor.
• The 9.8 projection and TE11 rank are modest, so this is a solid TE1 start rather than a league-winner — the only real risk is a touchdown-dependent week where a big-play TE outscores him.

The call

• Role is locked and elite for the position: 86% snap share and a 20% target share over eight games is target-hog usage that plays in any script.
• The opponent's 7-of-32 DvP composite is built on a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence — that's not a reason to bench a TE9 with this workload.
• Game environment is fine: a 23.0 implied total in a 1.5-point game means Green Bay stays balanced and Kraft sees his normal volume rather than getting scripted out.
• The one real risk is the questionable tag — if he's downgraded or limited late in the week, pivot; otherwise he's a confident start.