Chris Boswell or Harrison Butker: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Butker's stall-prone Chiefs offense offsets Boswell's slight scoring edge

Neither kicker separates himself on raw numbers, and the reasons they're close are almost mirror images. Kansas City's offense finishes fewer drives with touchdowns than Pittsburgh's, which sounds bad but actually means more field-goal tries funneled to Butker, and his career accuracy backs up that volume. Boswell counters with a marginally higher implied total and PPR projection, plus a proven long-range leg if the Steelers bog down near midfield. Both are locked-in starters on efficient offenses, so this comes down to which flavor of value you trust more — Boswell's cleaner scoring path or Butker's stall-driven attempt floor.

What flips it: A game plan shift toward more Chiefs red-zone touchdowns would erase Butker's attempt edge and swing the week to Boswell.

AI editor

Chris Boswell

K12PITvs ATL

9.09.09.0 Projected Points

Start· medium

Harrison Butker

K10KCvs DEN

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Chris Boswell

Start· medium

Starting PK and one of the league's most accurate. Big leg with proven cold-weather clutch production.

Boswell is the K12 play with a 22.8 implied total, 2.1 projected FG tries and 1.2 red-zone stalls per game feeding the leg.

Pittsburgh's offense converts more drives into touchdowns, so Boswell needs the Steelers to bog down to spike his attempts.
His track record of six 50-plus makes and a 60-yard long gives him range value if a drive stalls near midfield.

The call

Consensus K12 at 9.0 projected points is squarely startable in a 12-team league — no replacement-level kicker beats that baseline.
Pittsburgh's 22.8 implied total plus 1.2 red-zone stalls per game funnels drives into field-goal tries: 1.9 makes on 2.1 attempts with 2.4 extra points projected.
He's the locked-in PK1 with no designation, hitting 84% (27/32) and connecting from 50-plus in six games with a 60-yard long, so distance isn't a cap on his range.
Only real wrinkle is an open roof with no forecast yet — check wind before kickoff, but nothing in the sheet suggests a problem.

Why Harrison Butker

Start· medium

Veteran starting kicker with big-leg range. Proven under postseason pressure.

K10 with 8.5 projected, 87% accuracy and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game in a 22.5-point offense — enough volume to start in 12-team.

Kansas City's offense stalls in the red zone more often than Pittsburgh's, funneling extra field-goal tries to Butker.
His career accuracy edge over Boswell gives him a slightly higher floor on the attempts he does get.

The call

Butker projects for 8.5 points at K10, which is above the replacement line in a 12-team league where only 12 kickers start.
Kansas City's implied total of 22.5 plus 1.5 red-zone stalls per game supports the 2.1 projected attempts and 2.1 extra points — his floor comes from a functional offense that also settles for field goals.
He's the locked-in PK1 with no injury designation, hitting 87% (33/38) with five 50-plus makes and a 59-yard long, so range isn't a limiter in a tight 2.5-point game.
Only real risk is the open roof with no forecast yet — heavy wind or precipitation against Denver would push this back toward a coin flip.

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Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Chris Boswell	Harrison Butker
Projected points	9.09.09.0	8.58.58.5
Consensus rank	K12	K10
Projected FG attempts	2.1	2.1
Red-zone stalls / game	1.2(2025)	1.5(2025)
Implied total · spread	22.8-3.0	22.5-2.5
Field-goal %	84.4%(2025)	86.8%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up