Start Chris Boswell over Cairo Santos — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Boswell — the consensus rank and projection edges are too wide to ignore.

Chris Boswell is the higher consensus play (K6 to K15) and projects 9.0 to Santos's 8.3. Santos's edge is red-zone opportunity, 1.4 to 1.2 stalls per game. The gap is comfortable.

Cairo Santos

K15CHIvs CAR

8.38.38.3 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Chris Boswell

K6PITvs ATL

9.09.09.0 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Cairo Santos

Toss-Up

Veteran starting K. Accurate mid-range leg with long tenure as the team's kicker.

Toss-up — K15 by consensus, projects K16 this week: 1.4 red-zone stalls a game, and 8.3 pts projected vs CAR.

2.0 FG tries projected, right at the 2.0 league median this week.
CHI's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has CHI at 23.5 points as 2.5-point favorites.
83% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 3 games.

Why Chris Boswell

Start· medium

Starting PK and one of the league's most accurate. Big leg with proven cold-weather clutch production.

Boswell is the K12 play with a 22.8 implied total, 2.1 projected FG tries and 1.2 red-zone stalls per game feeding the leg.

2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
PIT's offense stalls in the red zone 1.2 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has PIT at 22.8 points as 3-point favorites.
84% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 6 games.

The call

Consensus K12 at 9.0 projected points is squarely startable in a 12-team league — no replacement-level kicker beats that baseline.
Pittsburgh's 22.8 implied total plus 1.2 red-zone stalls per game funnels drives into field-goal tries: 1.9 makes on 2.1 attempts with 2.4 extra points projected.
He's the locked-in PK1 with no designation, hitting 84% (27/32) and connecting from 50-plus in six games with a 60-yard long, so distance isn't a cap on his range.
Only real wrinkle is an open roof with no forecast yet — check wind before kickoff, but nothing in the sheet suggests a problem.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Cairo Santos	Chris Boswell
Projected points	8.38.38.3	9.09.09.0
Consensus rank	K15	K6
Projected FG attempts	2.0	2.1
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.2(2025)
Implied total · spread	23.5-2.5	22.8-3.0
Field-goal %	83.3%(2025)	84.4%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—