Start Jake Bates over Harrison Butker — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Bates — the game script and consensus rank edges are too wide to ignore.

Jake Bates plays in the better game script (27.8 implied team points to 22.5) and is the higher consensus play (K8 to K13). Butker's edge is attempt volume, 2.1 to 1.9 projected attempts. The gap is narrow.

Harrison Butker

K13KCvs DEN

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start· medium

Jake Bates

K8DETvs NO

8.78.78.7 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Harrison Butker

Start· medium

Veteran starting kicker with big-leg range. Proven under postseason pressure.

K10 with 8.5 projected, 87% accuracy and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game in a 22.5-point offense — enough volume to start in 12-team.

2.1 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
KC's offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has KC at 22.5 points as 2.5-point favorites.
87% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 5 games.

The call

Butker projects for 8.5 points at K10, which is above the replacement line in a 12-team league where only 12 kickers start.
Kansas City's implied total of 22.5 plus 1.5 red-zone stalls per game supports the 2.1 projected attempts and 2.1 extra points — his floor comes from a functional offense that also settles for field goals.
He's the locked-in PK1 with no injury designation, hitting 87% (33/38) with five 50-plus makes and a 59-yard long, so range isn't a limiter in a tight 2.5-point game.
Only real risk is the open roof with no forecast yet — heavy wind or precipitation against Denver would push this back toward a coin flip.

Latest on Butker

Seattle Seahawks vs. Kansas City Chiefs Game Highlights

ESPN · Aug 28, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Jake Bates

Start· medium

Starting PK with a massive leg. Big-range field goal threat beyond 55.

K9 in a dome with a 27.8 implied total — 2.9 projected XPs plus 1.7 makes and 50-plus range give Bates a top-10 floor.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
DET's offense stalls in the red zone 1.4 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has DET at 27.8 points as 7-point favorites.

The call

The 27.8 implied team total as a 7-point favorite is the key number: that volume of scoring means 2.9 projected extra points on top of 1.7 made field goals, which is exactly how kickers hit 8-plus.
Dome game, no weather risk — one of the few variables that actually separates kickers is neutralized here.
Locked-in PK1 with no injury designation, 79% accuracy (27/34) and a 59-yard long with 50-plus makes in 4 games, so the long-range upside is live.
Only mild caution: 1.9 projected attempts and 1.4 red-zone stalls per game mean he needs the offense to keep stalling short of the goal line for field-goal volume, so the score leans XP-dependent.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Harrison Butker	Jake Bates
Projected points	8.58.58.5	8.78.78.7
Consensus rank	K13	K8
Projected FG attempts	2.1	1.9
Red-zone stalls / game	1.5(2025)	1.4(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	22.5-2.5	27.8-7.0
Field-goal %	86.8%(2025)	79.4%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	0–0+1 toss-up