Chase McLaughlin or Evan McPherson: Toss-Up — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Same Game, Mirrored Roles: McLaughlin and McPherson Level Out

Tampa Bay and Cincinnati face off, which means these two kickers are staring at the exact same game from opposite sidelines — and it produces almost identical value. McLaughlin's offense scores less overall but stalls in the red zone more often, which actually protects his attempt count even as the Bucs struggle to finish drives. McPherson's Bengals project for more points, but that scoring comes from touchdowns rather than field-goal tries, which caps his upside despite the gaudier team total. The margins here are inside the noise for both accuracy and volume, so either kicker is a fine start with almost no separation between them.

What flips it: A shift in either team's red-zone efficiency — more stalls for Cincinnati or fewer for Tampa Bay — would flip the lean.

AI editor

Chase McLaughlin

K15TBvs CIN

8.48.48.4 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Evan McPherson

K14CINvs TB

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Chase McLaughlin

Toss-Up· medium

Starting placekicker with big-leg range and a 65-yard career long. Reliable from distance, though his 84.9% career accuracy sits around league average.

K15 at 8.4 points: elite 84% accuracy and 65-yard range, but only 2.0 projected FG attempts and no weather forecast at an open roof

Tampa Bay's tendency to stall in the red zone keeps McLaughlin's leg relevant even with the lower point total.
His accuracy has held steady on higher volume, so more red-zone trips mean more chances rather than more risk.

The call

The leg is a real edge — 84% (32/38) with a 50-plus make in 7 games and a 65-yard long means he cashes attempts other kickers don't even take.
Volume is the problem: 1.8 made on just 2.0 attempts plus 2.1 extra points off a 23.5 implied total is a median K line, which is why he sits at K15 rather than in the start-every-week tier.
1.4 red-zone stalls per game is a healthy source of drive-ending kicks, and he's locked in as PK1 with no designation, so there's no role or availability risk.
Tips to start if the forecast at the open roof comes in calm; if wind shows up, a top-12 kicker in a dome is the cleaner play.

Why Evan McPherson

Start· medium

Starting placekicker with big-leg range. Proven clutch postseason performer.

27.0 implied total plus 89% accuracy (25/28) and a 63-yard long make McPherson a fine K play — 8.5 projected points, 2.7 XPs baked in.

Cincinnati's larger implied total mostly reflects touchdowns finishing drives, which trims his own attempt upside.
His range and accuracy make him the safer bet if Cincinnati does need a kick from distance late.

The call

A 27.0 implied team total is a top-tier kicker environment: 2.7 projected extra points plus 1.9 field-goal tries gives him one of the better volume floors at the position.
He's been elite and locked in as PK1 — 89% accuracy on 25-of-28 with a 63-yard long and 50-plus makes in four games, so even stalled drives outside the 40 convert.
Only 1.1 red-zone stalls per game is a mild ceiling cap — this offense finishes drives, which pushes his scoring toward XPs rather than three-pointers.
Open roof with no forecast yet is the one thing to monitor; heavy wind would knock him back into the toss-up tier at K14.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Chase McLaughlin	Evan McPherson
Projected points	8.48.48.4	8.58.58.5
Consensus rank	K15	K14
Projected FG attempts	2.0	1.9
Red-zone stalls / game	1.4(2025)	1.1(2025)
Implied total · spread	23.5+3.5	27.0-3.5
Field-goal %	84.2%(2025)	89.3%(2025)
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—