Evan McPherson or Nick Folk: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start McPherson — the consensus rank and game script edges are too wide to ignore.

Evan McPherson is the higher consensus play (K12 to K21) and plays in the better game script (27.0 implied team points to 19.8). Folk's edge is red-zone opportunity, 1.2 to 1.1 stalls per game. The gap is comfortable.

Evan McPherson

Evan McPherson

K12CINvs TB

Projected Points

Start· medium
Nick Folk

Nick Folk

K21ATLvs PIT

Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Evan McPherson

Start· medium

Starting placekicker with big-leg range. Proven clutch postseason performer.

27.0 implied total, 89% accuracy (25/28) and a 63-yard long make McPherson a fine K12 play with 2.7 XPs projected.

  • 1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
  • CIN's offense stalls in the red zone 1.1 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has CIN at 27 points as 3.5-point favorites.
  • 89% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 4 games.

The call

  • Cincinnati's 27.0 implied team total is the driver — 2.7 projected extra points plus 1.9 field-goal tries is a full plate of scoring chances.
  • McPherson is hitting 89% (25/28) with makes from 50-plus in four games and a 63-yard long, so the deep tries that sink other kickers are live points for him.
  • 1.1 red-zone stalls per game keeps a steady supply of medium-range attempts flowing even when the offense doesn't finish drives.
  • Only real risk is the open roof with no forecast yet — check the wind before kickoff, but PK1 with no designation and this offense is a start.

Why Nick Folk

Toss-Up

Veteran starting kicker. Reliable accuracy and long-track-record consistency in the field-goal role.

Toss-up — K21 by consensus, projects K22 this week: 1.2 red-zone stalls a game, and 7.8 pts projected vs PIT.

  • 2.0 FG tries projected, right at the 2.0 league median this week.
  • ATL's offense stalls in the red zone 1.2 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
  • Vegas has ATL at 19.8 points as 3-point dogs.
  • 97% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 6 games.

Head-to-head stats

MetricEvan McPhersonNick Folk
Projected points
Consensus rankK12K21
Projected FG attempts1.92.0
Red-zone stalls / game1.1(2025)1.2(2025)
Implied total · spread27.0-3.519.8+3.0
Field-goal %89.3%(2025)96.6%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1

Signal breakdown

  • 8.5 vs 7.8 projected PPR pointsEvan McPherson +
  • Rank 12 vs 21Evan McPherson +
  • 1.9 vs 2.0 projected attemptsNick Folk +
  • 1.1 vs 1.2 red-zone stalls per gameNick Folk +
  • Kicking weathereven
  • Implied 27.0 vs 19.8 team pointsEvan McPherson +
  • No injury designationseven

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