Start Evan McPherson over Trey Smack — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start McPherson — the consensus rank and game script edges are too wide to ignore.

Evan McPherson is the higher consensus play (K12 to K17) and plays in the better game script (27.0 implied team points to 23.0). Smack's edge is red-zone opportunity, 1.5 to 1.1 stalls per game. The gap is narrow.

Evan McPherson

K12CINvs TB

8.58.58.5 Projected Points

Start· medium

Trey Smack

K17GBvs MIN

8.38.38.3 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Why Evan McPherson

Start· medium

Starting placekicker with big-leg range. Proven clutch postseason performer.

27.0 implied total plus 89% accuracy (25/28) and a 63-yard long make McPherson a fine K play — 8.5 projected points, 2.7 XPs baked in.

1.9 FG tries projected, just under the 2.0 league median this week.
CIN's offense stalls in the red zone 1.1 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has CIN at 27 points as 3.5-point favorites.
89% on field goals (2025), with a 50-plus make in 4 games.

The call

A 27.0 implied team total is a top-tier kicker environment: 2.7 projected extra points plus 1.9 field-goal tries gives him one of the better volume floors at the position.
He's been elite and locked in as PK1 — 89% accuracy on 25-of-28 with a 63-yard long and 50-plus makes in four games, so even stalled drives outside the 40 convert.
Only 1.1 red-zone stalls per game is a mild ceiling cap — this offense finishes drives, which pushes his scoring toward XPs rather than three-pointers.
Open roof with no forecast yet is the one thing to monitor; heavy wind would knock him back into the toss-up tier at K14.

Why Trey Smack

Toss-Up· medium

Rookie starting placekicker with a strong leg. Long-range kickoff and field-goal ability; no NFL regular-season sample yet.

K19 in a 12-team format, but a dome, a 23.0 implied total and 1.5 red-zone stalls per game keep him in the streaming mix.

Kicks indoors — no weather risk.
2.0 FG tries projected, just over the 2.0 league median this week.
GB's offense stalls in the red zone 1.5 times a game (2025) — that's where kicker points come from.
Vegas has GB at 23 points as 1.5-point favorites.

The call

The projection is the problem: 8.3 points and a K19 consensus rank put him just outside the every-week starter tier in a 12-team league, so a top-12 kicker on waivers should beat him out.
Everything around the volume is favorable — indoor game with no weather risk, a 23.0 implied team total and a 1.5-per-game red-zone stall rate that manufactures field goal tries on top of the 2.3 projected extra points.
He's the clear PK1 with no injury designation, so the role is locked; the ceiling is capped by only 2.0 projected attempts.
Tip-in: if the alternative on your waiver wire is a kicker with a higher implied total or more attempts, sit Smack; if you're choosing between him and an outdoor kicker in a low-total game, the dome makes him the play.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Evan McPherson	Trey Smack
Projected points	8.58.58.5	8.38.38.3
Consensus rank	K12	K17
Projected FG attempts	1.9	2.0
Red-zone stalls / game	1.1(2025)	1.5(2025)
Kicking conditions	—	Indoors, no weather risk
Implied total · spread	27.0-3.5	23.0-1.5
Field-goal %	89.3%(2025)	—
Depth chart	K1	K1
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up